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Technology Stocks : Vertel (VRTL) 10xbagger in the making -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Wright who wrote (93)	7/3/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: sinut8230	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 465

Jim......you are right on the money on vrtl. I had posted on thursday that one should not get too excited and that the stock would not hold. From the little bit of digging that I have been able to do, the 2nd quarter earnings should be good and I do think that the stock will drift on up towards the announcement. How high it drifts and whether it holds is anybody's guess. My gut feeling is that it wont hold, with many people trying to trade the vrtl 4-6 range. This stock has such a bad reputation and has burned so many people that it will take 3-4 positive quarters to overcome.......possibly more. This is being conservative, but I think that with positive 1,2,3, quarters the stock will be at 6-7 and finally hold. if the 4th is good and the firat quarter of 99 is positive, than you may see your first real move towards 10........these numbers are not as glitzy as some of the numbers thrown out in the past, but much more realistic. Have a great 4th.......... steve

To: James Wright who wrote (93)	7/3/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Adam Smith	Respond to of 465

Jim I agree with you on most of your scenario. It's is the chicken and the egg. I've talked to a number of the telecom analysts that follow TMN and watch Vertel. The won't commit until they see rev/profit momenteum. But when they commit VRTL will explode quickly. I think everyone agrees that TMN is emerging and telcom co's will all jump on the bandwagon. This will be classic technology adoption. A great book to read is "Innovation:The Attackers advantage" published by a Mckinsey consultant in the 80's. He details when new technology is accepted sales climb a very steep curve once there is validation from a large customer or major acceptance event. It's gonna happen or even happened already with TMN/Vertel and we could be very close to the breakout. But we ain't there yet so it's a waiting game. I think it will be within the next six months but could take a year. When it goes VRTL quickly on huge volume and the resistance points will be taken out. So we can just watch the revs. and listen to BB talk about new contract wins and wait. The press release day after the quarter ends is a good sign. Shows that VRTL mgt. "gets it" and has learned how to communicate with WS. Good Luck Adam