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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Mannel who wrote (5035)	7/3/1998 6:13:00 AM
From: Joe C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Why should the stock drop after good earnings? Last quarter's drop included the immediate release of almost 3 million lockup shares - shares that venture capitalists held that only then became available for them to sell. This will not be happenning this quarter. Although its' natural for a stock to fallback after a big gain, I don't think you should be expecting a repeat of last quarter given that the circumstances are different. The thing to watch for is the future direction TDFX gives and whether they are predicting good times head as opposed to the current gloomy industry forecasts. Joe C.

To: Rob Mannel who wrote (5035)	7/3/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Paul A	Respond to of 16960

funny, but im going to interject something positive here (shock). Alot of people are obviously just waiting to sell if we get a run up to $20-25. fine! but whats interesting is that if you have been addicted to the trading over the last few months and watched each trade second by second you will have noticed that the buyers have been almost all retail. (Us) If the earnings are blow out- and by blowout, I mean greater than .60, and the forward statements (very important) are positive, THIS will be where the big money enters. They would much rather buy a safe stock at $25 than take a risk and speculate before earnings/conference call and buy at these sub levels. Im noticing A LOT of newbies here, on the motley fool and on yahoo. Questions like when are earnings? Who is Mr Ballard? why did the stock go down after earnings last quarter? Read read read! The stocks drop from its 52 week high to the mid 20s was very justified. It was at around $25 that TDFX was swarmed by shorters jumping on the semi-bashing herd mentality, and thus we now struggle at $17. lots of ifs here. If we blow away estimates, if TDFX management still maintains the future growth will continue very strong, if banshee is accepted (I cant see how it wont be), you will never see this thing below $20 again regardless of what the semis are doing. Intel, Creaf, Dimd, TDDDF, etc etc all have plenty of reasons to be beaten with a stick. Over the last few tradings days the momentum has shifted so im satisfied with my belief that we will close at or above $20 just before earnings. What is said after the release is what matters. my prediction- close at or near $20 on the 15th. Management has a chance to back up their optimistic views with actual numbers. Stock jumps to $28 and as expected the retailers start to sell. We close near $25, and over the next month or two the company starts to draw the picture for the next quarter. Banshee will be in the news on a weekly basis, and the instititutions will jump all over this taking us to a new high. This is even more true if the semis continue to get bashed because this will be a bright spot. Or TDFX COULD surprise with a very bearish forward statement and I don't have to even say no more on that subject. for those of us who have been here since the beginning, its safe to say that we have learned alot about herd mentality, shorts, lockup periods, hype, stress, and most of all trying to deal with emotions when all your research is contradicted on a daily basis.