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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4715)	7/3/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Peter thanks. The non-technical pessimism somewhat summarizes the sinking feeling I've been having. From my extremely limited viewpoint, AGPH's actions have provoked renewed concerns since the hush hush approach on the AG3340 trials. The Remune situation sounded like it may be exciting, but does not appear that it was well received by folks in the know...the two other deals struck me as placing a big bet that HIV treatment would not advance significantly beyond current technology in the next few years, in that from everything I understand these drugs would be three years from market at best. I suspect the folks on the selling end knew this and may be the big winners on those deals. I'm hoping it was just initial confusion, and the AGPH super analyst Doug Lind will tell us Monday why AGPH is making the right moves, and why the stock is a buy. I expect to hear something from him. I suppose no word would be just as telltale. My confidence in this company has been deteriorating along with my trust in Mr Johnson and the BOD since the scam last October, the unrelenting insider selling since last year, and since it started appearing that their latest attempt at a cancer drug may be as much a bomb as the first. I don't know that the philosphy "Under promise and Over Deliver" is as fitting a description as "refuse to play the game" and/or "in trouble beyond Viracept and without a clue". Hope I'm wrong, but now at least someone has planted the seed that this company just may not be a winner in the big picture. The short interest situation further suggests to me that maybe we've all been missing something with this investment. I'm prepared to start bailing from my positions and heavily hedging anything remaining if 1) the stock closes below 28, 2) the insider selling by officers or directors appears to resume after a one month breather, or 3) if Doug Lind's opinion is neutral to down. I suppose it may be a good time to ask what the company is worth and who might be interested in buying. Thanks for the information. sf

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4715)	7/3/1998 2:20:00 AM
From: Peter Singleton	Respond to of 6136

From healthcarecg's reports on the Geneva conference, the following write up on S-1153 PI data, AGPH's recently inlicensed NNRTI (which would compete with Sustiva). Below that, I've copied in Testact's comments on S-1153 for comparison ... healthcg.com S-1153: A "Second Generation" NNRTI In the case of Lexigen Pharmaceuticals1 new non-nucleoside RTI code-named S-1153, the authors explain that the drug has a 10-fold greater in vitro potency than either nevirapine or delavirdine, the two NNRTIs currently licensed in the USA [2]. S-1153's claim to fame is that, like DuPont Pharma1s efavirenz, it requires more than one amino acid substitution in order for the IC50 of the drug to be significantly increased. But patients failing on any of the other NNRTIs will very likely already possess multiple NNRTI resistance mutations, so if S-1153 is to find a market, it seems it will be for the NNRTI-naive. This study of S-1153 was also a Phase I dose escalation study, in which HIV-infected individuals were exposed to seven different doses of S-1153 for either 14 or 28 days. Concomitant antiretroviral therapy with protease inhibitors or other NNRTIs was not allowed. Of the 25 individuals who received S-1153 for 28 days, four had already "failed" on protease inhibitor therapies and only 10 were taking concomitant NRTIs. A total of 54 patients received S-1153, and the drug was said to have high bioavailability with or without food. Side-effects reported were mild nausea and metallic taste which were ameliorated by dosing with food. No rashes were observed over the 14-28 study period. Target blood levels of S-1153 were maintained with q8 as well as q12 hour dosing. Of the 11 patients with plasma HIV RNA levels greater than 10,000 copies/mL who dosed for 28 days, the average viral load decrease on S-1153 was 1.74 log (range 0.74-2.6). In 12 of the total 25 patients who received S-1153 for 28 days, plasma viral loads dropped to below the limit of detection (400 copies/mL). The average CD4+ T cell increase in these patients was 122 cells/mm3. The authors concluded that S-1153 administered either BID or TID is well-tolerated, achieves therapeutic plasma levels and demonstrates potent antiviral activity in antiretroviral-experienced patients. However, it may be significant that no data were provided regarding prior NNRTI exposure and/or failure among this study population. If only protease and NRTI failures were recruited for this dose escalation study, results in the clinic among nevirapine, delavirdine or efavirenz-treated patients might differ significantly. Testact's comments: "I spoke with Peter Johnson at the meeting regarding the Shinogi compound; he obviously is excited about the prospect of it being active in Sustiva resistant strains. However this in in-vitro data and I am aware of better pre-clinical compounds than this one. The pharmakokinetics of this compound and dosing uncertianty (probably BID) make this a real question mark."