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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L. who wrote (9304)	7/3/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Look at this excerpted paragraph from the Xylan article: "Now, at 28 3/4, Xylan is the only major networker trading at a multiple below its expected growth rate. That's why this $240 million company landed on our SmartMoney Bargain Growth Screen." Xylan 1998 earnings estimates (from Gruntal) are $0.73. At $28.75 that is a P/E of 38. MRVC 1998 estimates (from BEST) are $1.25. At $20.75 that is a P/E of 16.6 - less than 1/2 of Xylan's. Last 12 month's revenue: MRVC $191 million, XYLN $238 million. "Xylan's revenue has grown by an average of 200% over the past two years and, more importantly, its earnings are expected to rise by 39% over the next three to five years." Look at MRVC's revenue growth: Revenue in Millions Q195 $ 6.7 Q196 $15.5 Q197 $ 35.6 Q198 $ 60.8 Q295 $ 8.3 Q296 $19.6 Q297 $ 39.5 Q395 $11.1 Q396 $22.7 Q397 $ 42.0 Q495 $13.0 Q496 $31.0 Q497 $ 48.4 Total $39.1 Total $88.8 Total $165.5 MRVC's revenue growth the past two years (1995-1997) has grown by 323%! ((165.5-39.1)/.391). MRVC's projected 3-5 year growth rate by Gruntal is 40% (conservative).

To: Eric L. who wrote (9304)	7/3/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: WebDrone	Respond to of 42804

Eric, I read Smartmuddy article, and wished it was about MRVC. I have the Xylan investor relations packet right here, right next to MRVC's. As other's have already said, MRVC's growth and consistency looked more compelling to me. Xylan specializes in ATM switching, which I thought (last year) would be a dated technology- that Gigabit Ethernet would kill ATM, because it seemed easier to me to hook up one big ethernet than dance between communications protocols. Turned out that ATM is a lot hardier technology thatn I thought-- try to make that arguement LAST year! As for mergers, I don't think it will be in to ATM. Mrvc has a very coherent strategy going. As I see it fiberoptics -> switching -> GE switching -> fiberoptic GE switching -> WDM products for the GE optic switches -> ??? As for the customers, MRVC is going engineers -> engineering work groups -> work groups -> enterprises -> VPN enterprises -> cable companies and customers. It looks to me like MRVC is moving towards cable tv as the route to get fiber to my macintosh. I have thought that MRVC might want a semiconductor operation, increased Voice over IP capabilities, or they need dough to ramp up production in a major way. I can wait to find out. R.

To: Eric L. who wrote (9304)	7/3/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: J. Conley	Respond to of 42804

Eric, Guess smartmoney is not heeding short sellers. The short interest in XYLN is much higher than MRVC: viwes.com Makes you wonder if some of the shorts are just looking for mid to small cap stocks in the sector, and not looking much beyond that. XYLN has only 43.1 million shares out, so the short interest as a percent of float is much higher than MRVC. Pink and other shorts may or may not have some valid points, but when he says something like "MRVC is a technological laggard", I wonder what he really knows about this company and its products. I have seldom seen anyone say that MRVC is a laggard in technological development. The cash burn issue has been around for at least a couple years. I did take a look at XYLN's 10-K a while back; my general impression was I like MRVC better than XYLN. One particular risk is that XYLN is somewhat dependent on a couple of big customers, MRVC is not. jc