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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (7762)	7/3/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 19080

Hey, I ALWAYS appreciate differing opinions. The reason I get aggressive is because often the opinions that differ from mine differ due to information that I already know about. Then I offer my opinion to get a response, and the response is lukewarm to lame.... Seriously...this is a stock that earns .83 per share. On an industry wide CONSERVATIVE 24 p/e, that is 20 bucks...fairly valued, until you realize that one time costs were factored in, and it was close to .93 cents. Still, at 24, you've got the current price...OKAY. NOW...let's look at next year's estimate of 1.10 per share. Using a typical 24 p/e/g ratio, that puts ORCL at 26... Factor in that ORCL typically beats estimates...so you might create a solid argument for 30 or even 32. Next, look at WALL STREET'S OWN estimates for the next 5 years (as someone clearly pointed out, they beat BOTH MSFT and INTC for growth in estimated eps)...and you HAVE to wonder what the hell the street is smoking. I agree with all of Michelle's points...apps are important, and if it isn't growing, then ORCL could be dead in the water. BUT...they OWN their market (just like MSFT). They can survive 2-3 years of poor apps growth as they turn the ship around...without missing a beat (to some degree). I don't think it's a stretch. I think NC is going to be big for ORCL. If IBM is pushing it, others will benefit, particularly the originator (ORCL)....they may not be the leader, but they will benefit. Apps will rebound, and services will carry them in the meantime. ORCL will probably continue beating estimates by a penny or two for the next 3-4 quarters. It's a respect thing. MSFT has it on Wall Street, ORCL doesn't. If you believe it's an apps problem, all you're doing is reading analyst reports. Most of the people I know in the industry say that while it is POSSIBLE to envision a world without ORCL, it is highly unlikely due to their ubiquity.