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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blankmind who wrote (18620)	7/3/1998 2:07:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

I'm not too impressed with Shafer but figured you guys would want to know what they're doing.

To: blankmind who wrote (18620)	7/4/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

blank, Since you've missed my last 1/2 million posts because you were cruising on some yacht in the mediteranean<g>, (I still can't believe you didn't have internet access on the darn thing :-) ) I will have to clarify the slant that this guy, Bernie Schafer, may actually have a point on. >>Overt Optimism,<< The next day after earnings, we were in the 31-32 range immediately. This gave some life to this thread - 30M volume!!! Some of us thought that the rally was going to continue, but we weren't sure how. Next few days, we had strong volume in the 30-31 range, after opening up high in the 31.5 range...over 10M volume each day. Then, we got to the last day in June. Volume was 12.5M and for most of the day the trading was in the 31-32 range. A lot of us thought that there was something to do with "window dressing", and that this would be our ticket to freedom from the dreaded 30 and below range. Another words, believe it or not, there was at a minimum a guarded optimism, if not more. That's what Schaeffer was taking about. During those 3 - 4 days, we noticed the heavy activity with the call options, which fueled our positive expectations. One thing, we did not discuss much was that, while we got the 6-8 upgrades the next day after earnings report, most of those jokers lowered their estimates. After our big brohaha with the 'Briefing.com' episode' (another piece of fine drama that you missed), none of us were in the frame of mind to believe any ANALyst. But, the fact is that those 'diminished estimates', were possibly what was setting the real tone for COMS pricing... we shall see in the future. Schaeffer says: >>Fundamentals are "tenuous" as he cites flat revenues that were below the company's own expectations.<< I don't know where he gets the BS above about 'company's expectations not being met'. Hogwash. Plus, the next quarter or two about flat sales is what COMS is expecting, citing that summer time is slow for them. Well, I could see a stock which is way up get demolished for announcing flat sales, but not COMS which has been beat up plenty, and which flat sales is considered getting on its feet considering that's what they do when their running strong during the summer. (Not to mention, that COMS is probably playing down expectations, as it should do in the early part of a turnaround.) A lot of this escapes Scaheffer's analysis, most probably, because he doesn't spend much time beyond the immediate numbers. >> The technicals are also weak...<< I'm not a TA expert so I don't have an opinion on this. But I will say that COMS is hurting from the reduced estimates (IMO) which is contradictory to a very hopeful sign of a turnaround for the week after the earnings report. Most ANALysts were pleased. But they reduced earnings estimates. Everybody started running one way, and was caught flat footed after it seemed they were overdoing it. Hopefully, something will come around to give us a lift up again... I guess we'll have to wait some more, & see what happens, 'till the COMS machine gets fine-tuned.