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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (6155)	7/3/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jacob, I think I will leave your first 3 points to a later post. Regarding: 4. I think we'll know before September. The U.S. and Chinese governments, and even more so the currency markets, are going to punish any further attempts at delaying. Their feet are to the fire now, and the hot pincers are being applied. This is a topic of discussion that ended up in some heated discussion before. Allow me to try to present a different point of view. Whether it was intentional or purely accidental, the US has an amazingly strong political infrastructure. We have a system oriented government vs one ruled by individuals. Clinton, Gore, Rubin can be replaced by Smith, Jones and Brown tomorrow. Our government goes on without missing a beat. Most Asian countries are individual oriented, with the extreme being the Suharto types to the more subtle Chaebols that rules Korea. Even though Greenspan and Rubin came from the likes of ML, the strong US system makes it virtually impossible for them to be in bed with their ex-Wall Stree buddies. Is that the same in Japan? Any reform in Japan therefore involves a changing of the guards. Jess pointed out in one of his posts that the current Japanese regime may not have the talents to solve the problem. The US and Chinese can scream all they want. In the end, it is still a power struggle between individuals. There is no doubt that the Japanese people exist for the benefit of the government and not vice versa. Any reform will come slowly and to the least detriment to those in power. Do you really think the Japanese gives a damn to what US and China thinks? Do you really think we are "holding their feet to the fire"? The US is the evil empire who dropped a couple of bombs killing hundreds of thousands of innocent peace loving civilians. We are just the golden goose who laid the post war egg in Japan, helping them become the second largest economy in the world. Unless disaster strikes, such as another Cultural Revolution or Great Leap Forward (in the wrong direction), China is going to reclaim the dominant position in Asia as she had for a few thousand years. Though seldom heard of here, China had never allowed Japan to forget their deeds during WWII and had been repeatedly used as leverage whenever deemed necessary. Japan couldn't care less if the yuan devalues or if the Chinese economy tanks, unless it is going to drag Japan down with it. The world is not shy about telling Japan what is the "right" thing to do. I would just like to point out that the Japanese may have a completely different definition for "right". If one tries to analyze the situation from the Japanese perspective, one may realize why some of these unsolicited suggestions from the western world will not work. Ramsey (to be continued)