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To: Mark Jurik who wrote (6732)7/3/1998 5:42:00 AM
From: JDN  Respond to of 10786
 
Dear Mark: DO YOU WORK FOR CLINTON? If not I think he could use you. Anyone who can put a positive spin on things as well as you ought to apply at the White House!!
ALYD is in the dumps cause it hasnt performed up to ANYONES expectations. Why, in my humble opinion they have a great product with LOUSY management. Wish I had never heard of these people but I am stuck in this damn stock and will exit the MOMENT it gets back to my purchase price of 18 IF EVER. JDN



To: Mark Jurik who wrote (6732)7/3/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: Larry Brew  Respond to of 10786
 
Mark, << Y2K performance -- my 2cents >>

I see little corporate concern. The belief is that in house fixes are to be a minimal effort. Like JDN, I believe management is
everything. I've gone down with the best before over management. AYLD
hasn't been around long enough to show it's track record, but I do
keep in mind the entire sector stinks, therefore I see their
management as an unknown.
If in house fixes prove to be a viable solution, Y2K investing may
be a loser. If not, these companies will be even stronger than today's internet providers after 2000. It's a risk I'm sticking with.
I once owned AOL and dumped them because they stink. Would I ever
like to own a piece of them and Yahoo today at last year's prices.
I thought the communications industry would blow them out of the
water. Shortsightedness on my part as those copper and fiber companies need to buy their technology. Back to ALYD. Sticking by them. A real problem or not just may not matter. The political war over Y2K can make them a winner either way. Go Gingrich vs Clinton!
Larry. --- Guess that was more like my 4 cents. :-)



To: Mark Jurik who wrote (6732)7/4/1998 2:40:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10786
 
Mark, well thought out post. I look forward to your post where you summarize your conclusions.

Here is my two cents (note: these comments correspond to your main text, not the summary questions)

1. Yes, I agree that the reason Y2K vendors are not doing as well as expected is because either companies are first trying to do Y2K work in-house or they are (willingly or unwillingly) procrastinating. Those that are doing it in-house bought tools long ago. Those that are procrastinating will largely go with one of the dozens of Y2K vendors/consultants who call them every week who have already bought their tools. So, yes, I'm not optimistic about the fortunes of vendors that sell tools.

2. Somehow I think there won't be a shortage of consulting firms to do Y2K work as just about anyone who can program will instantly become a Y2K consultant and greed and ignorance will prevent many from saying "no". However, I do think the "major" firms like ALYD will definitely raise their rates and/or pass along cost increases necessary for hiring quality talent to their customers.

3. I'm not sure who you are classifying as "factories". ALYD is definitely a Y2K factory. As AYLD just announced contracts with AMD and Aerospace, obviously you must be excluding ALYD from the "few, if any" comment about contracts announced this quarter. As ALYD has shown a profit the past two quarters and has grown eps from .01 to .10 with some forecasting .15 for the one just past, I assume you are excluding them from the firms you indicate have had "one or more losing quarters."

4. The only money that is flowing into Y2K companies is going to the body shops. Vendors that sell tools have almost all been cut in half and I see no indications things will improve as sequential revenue is not going up. As for factories, again, I wish I knew who you are including in this group. In ALYD's case, I think institutions like the numbers they are putting up (assuming you compare them to reality and not Y2K hype), but are looking for a solid post Y2K strategy before investing in a major way. BTW, I expect that to change before the end of the summer.

5. The vast majority of investors don't have a clue what differentiates one Y2K firm from another. The most popular Y2K stock is ZITL and they haven't booked a single Y2K dollar.

6. Joint ventures and teaming agreements between "major" Y2K vendors and small consulting firms are relatively meaningless. Fortune 500 companies, where the money is, have a hard enough time getting approval to send mission critical code to the majors let alone to some mom and pop consulting firm. Obviously I see the ALYD-CPWR relationship as a partnership between majors-- one where both companies get their regular fees.

- Jeff