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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (47279)	7/3/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

There are times when I wish I had one of those fancy programs where I could post a chart with trendlines drawn in and stuff....this is one of those times. tscn.com I think that maybe sometimes we try too hard to out-think this stuff. I believe that most of us trading the markets are intelligent and believe we can do most anything. I am beginning to think that that mind-set can be a negative when working with the markets. We talk about Asia and earnings and lawsuits and oscillators etc, etc.... Look at this chart. Let us make this very very simple, because that is what it is. Draw a line at the 545 level. That has been solid resistance. No question. The very top was 548. When the index hit 550, that should have been a signal to buy. It was an easy ten pointer. Now what do we have. We have an uptrend in place with two channel lines. Just prior to the break-out there was an ascending right triangle. Once confirmed on a break of 550 it appears (if I recall correctly and maybe someone can clarify this for me, my bible - Edwards and Magee is at home - that the measuring implications is 30 points from the break) we are heading to 580 OEX minimum. This should be a good target as the triangle broke well prior to the apex and about 1/2 through the formation. Right now we are sitting on the lower portion of the trendline, so Monday should be an up day. What would have to happen to indicate that this formation is a failure? My opinion is a break to 550 OEX. That would indicate a failed pattern and a re-test of the lows, and lower. Based on the simplistic TA method of trendlines and channels, this baby is going to 580, minimum OEX. The chances of a failure are small in my opinion. Why do we try to out-think all of this? Why oh why.....buy calls! -Scott