To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3898 ) 7/3/1998 5:09:00 PM From: BigKNY3 Respond to of 9523
Here's this week's Barrons' key PFE articles: an analyst supporting his PFE "hold" position and a letter from a happy patient. Have PFun! BigKNY3 ___________________________________ Despite Near-Term Negatives, Dow Noses Above 9000 By ANDREW BARY Is Viagra starting to fade? Following a steady decline in new prescriptions during the past month, there's some concern on Wall Street that Pfizer's widely hyped impotence drug may not prove to be a multibillion-dollar blockbuster. The worries have depressed Pfizer's stock, which has become prisoner to developments surrounding Viagra in recent months. Pfizer fell 4 7/16 to 107 1/2 last week, and is down from a record 121 3/4 at the time of the drug's launch in late April. New prescriptions for Viagra peaked at over 278,000 in the week ended May 18 but fell to 151,000 in the week ended June 19, the most recent reporting period, according to IMS America, the Nielsen of the drug business. The weekly "script" data are still extraordinarily high for a new pharmaceutical, and refill prescriptions for Viagra continue to increase. But given the enormous expectations for the drug and the runup in Pfizer's stock this year, any indication of slowing momentum for Viagra causes some nervousness among investors. Pfizer is up 44% in 1998, 78% in the past year and commands the highest multiple in the drug group, trading at over 50 times projected 1998 profits. "A lot of people are saying Viagra will do $1 billion in sales this year and eventually hit $5-$10 billion annually. I don't think that will happen," says James Flynn, drug analyst at Furman Selz. Flynn, who recently downgraded Pfizer to Hold from Buy, sees Viagra ringing up $2 billion in annual sales in five years, an impressive level but below the most optimistic projections. Flynn says the recent prescription data show Viagra's U.S. sales running at an annual rate of $700 million. "If you look at lifestyle drugs, they typically peak about three months after they're launched," he says. The big question regarding Viagra is whether it's just another "lifestyle" drug like diet pills or baldness remedies and thus lacks staying power. Or is Viagra, which already has had the strongest debut of any drug in history, on its way to becoming the biggest-selling prescription drug in history? _____________________________________________________________ Happy, on Two Counts To the Editor "A great investors' drug is one that the patient has to keep buying," Peter Lynch once said. With Viagra we have only seen the top of the iceberg. There are apparently some 30 million males in the U.S. alone with erectile dysfunction. That doesn't include a sizable, silent and stoic group of gentlemen over 40 with flagging standards. Approximately two-thirds of these two groups can be aided by this drug. Indirect beneficiaries will be Pfizer shareholders -- and you might just see a benign smile on the face of a wife or significant other. In 1991, age 61, I had radical surgery for the removal of a cancer of the prostate. Viagra isn't an aphrodisiac and should be taken only after consultation with a knowledgeable doctor. But this little blue pill works! Investors, watch your stock rise! DR. IAN GRANT-WHYTE Mont Tremblant, Quebec