To: supergekko who wrote (1325 ) 7/5/1998 7:09:00 PM From: savolainen Respond to of 1998
[relationships] hi s.gekko, regarding takeover approaches, am inclined to think that orctf wants to play out their current hand, and unless they get an offer they just can't turn down, think they'll probably try to see how far they can get on their own... think the next year and a half will be critical right now orctf is up to their eyeballs in fujitsu (and vice versa) : together they have three separate multiyear (5-6 year) deals: fujitsu microelectronics for the new adsl chipset, fujitsu network communications (exclusive) for xdsl systems in north america and fujitsu limited (nonexclusive) for xdsl systems in europe and asia... it is hard to imagine a fujitsu letting orctf fall into a competitor's clutches... fwiw fujitsu/orctf beat out (among others) alcatel, cisco, nortel, westell (lu?) for the gte contract.. as far as potential new relationships go, am inclined to think of them in three categories... silicon customers, systems partners, and complementary products "partners"... silicon customers: this next generation orctf adsl/hdsl2/vdsl silicon will for sale to others... (this is a first for orctf) ... there are a lot of players out there who don't have their own silicon who might be interested if the stuff is good... and believe the market for broadband silicon will be huge ... even a small slice of this pie could be significant not only for the revenues but for valuation ... (exhibit a would be broadcom) systems "partners": the more success orctf has, the more attractive they become as a partner for various systems players.. fujitsu has an exclusive for the usa, but elsewhere, aside from fujitsu think we'll hear more from both bosch and lucent (as they were reportedly both doing joint demos with orctf @ cebit) among others... (as a sidenote, have been digging around for fsan info, and it looks like bosch is gearing up to produce their own fsan product... they recently paid bbtk pretty big $ for rights to their fsan technology and even got a batch of bbtk's employees in the bargain) complementary products: in the realm of complementary products think we could see a relationship with a cpe equipment supplier and maybe a networker (maybe one and the same?)... orctf has said they are not interested in the cpe side and will make their $ there thru silicon... this would seem to have the potential for being a big deal, and dt, if it works out, can only help up the odds on the stature of such a player being significant... integrating broadband access into networking products for home and small businesses would seem to be key for penetrating/creating such markets... and a host of other multimedia products (videophones, info kiosks etc) would seem to face a similar challenge... would think orctf would make a good partner/supplier for someone (or maybe a few) as orctf has the core technology and covers all the bases for copper based broadband access: adsl/hdsl/sdsl/vdsl... do you by any chance know if the cpe equipment being used by dt/orctf are simply modems or set-top boxes (or both)? would expect orctf to be providing the modems (but would expect them to hand off this stuff in the near future), but don't know if they would be providing set-top boxes? any ideas on who orctf might work with for set-top boxes for dt? or modems? also the secondary prospectus mentions that both siemens and fujitsu limited are working on onu's that will integrate orctf. siemens/orctf is vdsl linecards.. expect fujitsu limited is all xdsl flavors... any and all info/speculation welcome til later s