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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (29537)	7/4/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Joan, I like the dividend on Phelps Dodge. However, this company has a history of cutting a dividend payout faster than my $2.99 barber buzzes through my mop top. <G> I think there are lots of great growth industries, including the internet, software cos., communications technology and medical technology. However, biotech, subset of medical technology, seems to be the only one to have a lot of promising stocks that are not at huge multiples. The key, in my system, is not to find a growth industry, but to buy growth at a decent price. Commodities and emerging markets and Asia may or may not be great growth choices, but, like Reits, they will have their turn in the barrel, IMHO. My basic position is that the big money over the next 5 years in US stocks and bonds will be made on the short side, mostly by those with long puts and bearish hedged positions. There are still values around, but they are few and far between. And there will still be a diamond found among all the acorns from time to time, but the great majority of issues are grotesquely overvalued. For example, I think the company, NetGravity (NETG) has a super future of growth ahead of it. but paying the current price for it is gambling, not investing. I think Japan, ex the banks, is dirt cheap. As are Australia, Chile, The Philippines, Taiwan and South Africa. Thailand and Indonesia and Malaysia are going to offer the highest returns in the world when they turn, but you need to mainline Maalox with those. I expect Europe to offer some good deals on the fixed income side, though I think their stock rally is past the midpoint of its rise. People are still going to use platinum, palladium, copper, titanium, etc., though the prices of these metals do not reflect that. US bonds will rise in rate eventually, back to the 8 1/2% level sometime in the next five years, as Greenspan's financial asset inflation scam becomes more apparent to even the great unwashed. Stocks that have no eps growth cannot forever live on the Fed's printing presses. So, long puts for the adventurous and bear spreads for those who like to make 8-17% at fairly low risk while the market declines, seems the smarter play than hunting for those few diamonds. I still hunt for the diamonds, but that portion is now only 10% of my total portfolio. MB