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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (12015)	7/4/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Dave - on futures vs. stocks -- one logical and mathematically believable explanation on my lament that dumb people seem to be able to make money in the stock market (but not futures trading) is : futures trading is a zero sum game (and, even worse than that, when commissions are added in). The stock market, in theory, trends up. I think the real answer is : if all stock market players were forced to continuously have a portfolio that was 50% long, and 50% short, then you would see if anyone actually knew what they were doing. This 50/50 long/short is exactly what the futures market is all about. But, it is not the story with the stock market. Anyway, since the public is (about) 99% long, and 1% short on stocks, AND stocks have endlessly gone up recently, everyone looks great. But, I am sure if you looked at the equivalent of any of these irritating new magazines like "Worth" and ... I can't even think of others, in 1982, when the Dow Jones was 780, down from a level of almost 1000 in 1966, I am sure you would not have found stories about stock ownership being the "road to riches." I know I am not explaining this real well (sorry). (In the 1966 - 1982 period, (or, even better, the period starting in 1966 with DJ at 1000 through the point in late 1982 or 1983 when the DJ was finally back up to 1000) only a stock picker with true "value adding" knowledge would have made money. Guess what, pretty much nobody, amateur or professional, made any money then). The obvious GOOD QUESTION is : since even 16 years is a lot less than one's estimated life span, why can't people just be rational and endlessly hold on to stocks (I'm pretty sure I cannot) -- I do not have an answer. Jon.