To: Darren who wrote (678 ) 7/4/1998 2:13:00 AM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1729
Good of you to clear some things up, Darren. I see where you leverage your money, so you are trading with the buying power of $100,000. This makes more sense to me. I am still in a quandary on how a person can trade full-time and pay the bills. They must have more money stashed away, but it is this point that I find conveniently never gets mentioned by most who talk about trading full-time for some reason. Also, how do you handle draw downs? If you are telling me that there will be no draw down more than 1/8, I think many including experienced traders will find this hard to believe. So perhaps your style which has found a way to handle this aspect of trading is different than what I am familiar with and have come across in in the course of discussions here on SI, which of course is entirely possible. I do not claim to have anything close to "complete" knowledge of the markets and likely never will. Draw downs is an area that I think you will agree is important to the success of the trader. Look at that date in October 1987 for an extreme example of this. I am not claiming to be an expert. In day trading, all I know is what I have been able to understand through many conversations with other day traders who are successful. It is not rocket science in understanding how it is done. But understanding it and doing it are two completely different things which I think most here will agree. Still, I personally cannot see "going for it" in utilizing all of the capital including leverage on every trade. I personally think this is recklessness. But I do understand what is recklessness to one person may be considered not outrageous to another. I do respect these differences even though I may not understand them. Darren I have found to be one of the more understanding people that does not have an ego to bruise like many here do at SI. So I think he may understand where I am coming from here. My "doom and gloom" posts are in response to many I see that simply are at best tenuously connected to reality. I have seen many examples where you can take a person who thinks rationally in other areas of their life, but place them in a position of chasing after $$$ in the markets, their thinking quickly becomes faulty and self-destructive. Call me cynical, but sometimes I think there is a gene for this like there is for alchoholism. I think much of the same thinking is shared between the two as alluded to in Dr. Alexander's book. But then I have seen people only behave in this way in relation to their pursuit of trading in the markets. So there are some fundamental differences between the two. Perhaps it is a "meme" instead of a gene that gets implanted in their minds early in life and takes root to show up in different ways in their life with respect to their relationship with money? I think allot of this has to do with a peron's self-esteem. People and money and so goes the carnival! So if anyone find my "gloom and doom" posts unpleasant, perhaps it is the message more that it is the question of validity of the message that bothers you. I find that even though some of my messages can stir a few people up, I find it is more because on how it made them *feel* rather than what they actually *thought* of it. I find the more experiences people who have "been there" in trading either agree or perhaps feel a bit amused by my posts that they disagree with. But I have never had a problem with a trader's who have solid and successful experience in trading. If they feel generous, they may correct some of what I have to say based on their experience which I will always listen to and consider. Richard Estes for example is good at this and I have learned allot from this person. They may be very assertive but I have found them not to become upset and put out by anything that I have had to say in this regard. I think that is because they know better and they are confident in what they know. So I find that it is the inexperienced people who are still dreaming about their success in the markets that strongly object to the unpleasant dose of reality I am trying to provide through my posts. I think this says something. This I consider human nature, so I am finding no actual fault with the people who strongly object. Finally, my post about systems referred to the beginning of the thread of this particular conversation where there was an individual here that stated they believed an expert system could be built to handle the trading decisions. So consider my contribution as from a person who chose to join the conversation and place his two cents into this ongoing discussion. I did not mean to come across obtuse. Perhaps I should of framed my response better so many of you could understand to what I was commenting about. Sometime I do not spend enough time framing my responses as I should, particularly considering the potentially volatile subject material they sometimes deal with. But writing an expert system for trading in the markets? I have read about well-funded studies that were done in the past to accomplish this. This idea is definitely not new. From what I understand not one has been successful so far, but I understand some work well as a *tool* to trading. No great surprise here. If it will make some here "feel" better, I will refrain from future "gloom and doom" posts. I apparently have made my point here at SI in this regard. It is just that even since I have seen a good close freind many years ago get caught up in this nonsense of finding riches in the markets, like the option market in his case, and be lead by someone down that path to losing $200,000 of money that he could not afford to lose and could not replace, and I see much of the same nonsense here at SI that is being promoted or at the very least assertions that are being misunderstood by novices, I think to myself "here we go once again". People being fed what they need to hear. I am hoping the people experienced in trading become more careful in how they make their assertions in a public forum like SI. Bob Graham