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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gottfried who wrote (6169)7/4/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10921
 
I agree, Gottfried -- "bubble economy" is much more appropriate to Pacific Rim countries. We might take a hit when the huge capital flow to the US markets is stemmed or even reversed, but it isnt' going to dry up our capital. The economy here is healthy but the market is overpriced, and even though the eventual possible hit to the market will hurt the economy, it won't collapse.

I really don't think Japan has a "bubble economy" either. It's economy is real and healthy, but its fiscal and trade policies have hurt it. The Japanese, unlike the Koreans, Thais, Indonesians, etc., have hard case equity in their businesses and plenty of working capital, even with the possible trillion dollar loss they have sustained in the past year or two.

The term "bubble economy" properly applies to Asian Rim countries that have built manufacturing export economies on borrowed money. The horrendous leverage turned entire nations into speculative ventures that would necessarily collapse at the inevitable economic downturn. Sort of like building houses on the San Andreas Fault.
:)



To: Gottfried who wrote (6169)7/4/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Gottfried, I do not see any "bubble stock market" in the semis or the semi equipment. A bunch of these stocks are already selling under book value, some a lot under "replacement" value. To the extent there is a bubble, it is in the 100 or so "nifty" stock and a good dose of "rotation" could take care of that quite rapidly.

Zeev