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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (49770)	7/4/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 176387

Kemble: Dell is looking better every day, as solid as I have ever seen it since 1993.US market conditions as good as could be, with talk about reducing bond rates later in the year. The SEA flue appears not to have migrated to South America, Peru, ARG, Mexico as feared. Company growth rate is outstanding, avoiding the perils of competition in sub-1K market, dedication and focus at work, going for the profitable areas. Bears are running low on ammo, perhaps used too much in 1996. Looking back, here is a sample of what can go wrong in considering Dell's P/E ratio or competition: cedarnet.org Here is a mortar shell launched by bear on Friday, Sep 20 1996 at 9:16PM . It was a dud, as Dell went to 120 on Dec 9 and is now at $744/share w/o splits. <<<<<<< At 32.6X earnings this stock is a screaming short. Timing when stocks drop is a guess at best. The why is because of valuations. The computer industry trades at 14.9X earnings. Compaq trades at 15X earnings, and Dell at today's close of $ 86 1/2 trades at 32X earnings. The bigger it gets the harder it is to grow. The X-mas season will really bring the competition out, and the price wars. Already Toshiba is heavily marketing its desktop computers with all the media gizmos on it. Sony is just now starting to push its computers and who knows who else will be entering. They will get some market share, and everybody's piece of the pie will be smaller. The pie itself is also not growing like it was (Dataquest's latest estimates). Regardless of any warnings coming out, this stock is due for a correction. I am looking to take a bigger short position on Monday. After a month of good news on Dell and major money pouring in because of its addition to the S&P 500 (by index fund managers), there only remains bad news. This is why we have cycles. Dell's chart from the past 2 years shows a volatile stock. It could easily drop to below $50 if the mood on the PC industry changes; and the mood changes in this business once a month.>>>>>>>> And Jim Kelley fired back a broadside: Message 293030 Am planning to ride the Dell train and hang on tight to avoid getting thrown off on the curves or stuck by an errant bear shot.(g) Have a good Fourth. Regards Sig