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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (7769)	7/5/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

The only data I can find shows the estimates for ORCL going back 90 days. These estimates have not been revised downwards: biz.yahoo.com Researchers have found that estimates made 12 months out are on average 57.1% higher than actual earnings. Estimates made one month out are on average 11.9% too high. If you want to verify these figures, the study was "Falling In Love Again: Analysts' Estimates And Reality" by Clayman and Schwarz, published in the Financial Analysts Journal September-October 1994 on pages 66-68. They studied 399 US companies over the period 1982 to 1992. Without any hard data, we can't settle whether analysts have revised down their Oracle estimates (particularly the 5 year ones). But even supposing that they haven't, why would this be proof that they won't have to this time? The statistical evidence is that analysts are usually way too optimistic. Given the overwhelming evidence that analysts are too optimistic, it might be brave to bet that they aren't too optimistic about Oracle.