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Technology Stocks : INDONESIA'S PT TELECOM(TLK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: needawin who wrote (760)	7/5/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: needawin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 947

Enter Bargain Basement Buyers: Houston Chronicle July 4, 1998 Business Section noted Cemex, Mexico's largest cement manufacturer, hopes to expand into Indonesia. " Cemex is the favorite to buy control of PT Semen Gresik, Indonesia's largest cement company ". Can it be too long before others try to cash in on these once in a lifetime Indonesian stock prices? I bought Tlk, in part, thinking perhaps its subject to a buyout by someone with a longer term horizon.

To: needawin who wrote (760)	7/6/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 947

In the 1980s when Latin America collapsed it took them a decade to get their economies on any sort of an even keel and the stock markets did not make any real progress for years. I don't doubt that foreign investors will be back but they will be buying existing assets, not building new ones, and so there will be no impact on growth. TLK have already conceded much to their foreign JV partners and will probably concede a lot more in terms of revenue share and MTR payments as the crisis worsens. Indonesia will recover in time - we both agree on that - but in what form will it exist? Will Habbibie play the nationalistic card and close Indonesia to the outside world? (and therefore avoid having to pay off its US$200bn of debt) or will the nation disintegrate as the starving population refuse to put up with the status quo? I disagree with TLK bulls for the following reasons... I think Indonesia will take 5 years plus to recover. Where else in the world has an economy that has gone through what Indonesia has experienced recovered over a period of 1-2 years? Their banking system is insolvent and illiquid, exports are not picking up hyperinflation remains a very real risk and interest rates are crippling. How can TLK grow US$ earnings in this environment. I am bullish of some Indonesian stocks (Indorama, Indah Kiat, Tambang Timah) as they have reasonable businesses, US$ revenue, are well managed and trade on 2-3x earnings with good growth prospects. TLK trades on 30x earnings, is badly managed, has Rupiah revenue and very poor growth prospects. Effective penetration of telephone lines in Indonesia is 50%. There just is not the affordable population to support a large telephone infrastrucure. Forget the fact that its the 4th largest country with 200m people. 100m of these are starving and, I assume, will not be needing a phone. Bankruptcies are soaring and unemployment is at 40% and rising. The effective market is only 10-20m people if that. Good luck Tom

To: needawin who wrote (760)	7/7/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: JEFF CHAPMAN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 947

For those looking for alot of news nightly on Indonesia, may I suggest mytrack.com (Via Comtex & Asia Pulse)? Here's a sample: (COMTEX) B: INDONESIAN OFFICIALS FOR PRIVATE DEBT TALKS IN US/JAPAN B: INDONESIAN OFFICIALS FOR PRIVATE DEBT TALKS IN US/JAPAN JAKARTA, July 7 (Asia Pulse via COMTEX) -- Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry Ginandjar Kartasasmita and government economic adviser Widjojo Nitisastro were due to leave for the US and Japan yesterday to follow up on talks on the settlement of private debts. A press statement received by ANTARA from the state ministry last Friday said Ginandjar planned to further discuss the matter of private debts in New York on July 8 and was expected to have the same discussions in Tokyo on July 13. Ginajdjar was also scheduled to meet US officials and international financial institutions like IMF, ADB and the World Bank in Washington, and also Japanese officials in Tokyo to discuss the current economic situation in Indonesia. The Governor of the central bank Bank Indonesia Syahril Sabirin and chairman of National Development Planning Board (Bappenas) Boediono were expected to accompany the Ginandjar and Widjojo. BI governor Syarhil Sabirin was scheduled to continue to Paris on July 9 and would be in Frankfurt, Germany on July 10, while Boediono would be in Seoul, South Korea on July 14 and in Singapore on July 15. (ANTARA) -0- (C) 1998 Asia Pulse Pte Ltd * end of story * BTW, I got this story from mytrack.com's software which is free and can be downloaded here: mytrack.com If you do sign up for this (you get Comtex newswires around the clock on markets around the world plus Marketguide reports for free, with news/quotes/ticker in 'pushed' streaming format, contests and chat), please put 'Muthavugah' in the referred by field...