To: Herm who wrote (7822 ) 7/4/1998 2:29:00 PM From: Rob Hodges Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
Herm, Once again let me thank you for starting and maintaining, along with the help of many fine contributors, the finest thread in SI. I posted about two months ago that I was going to start writing CC's on RADAF and asked your opinion. Let me tell you where I presently am with this stock. I am long 500 shares at an average price of $19.50. I sold the June 20 calls for 1 3/8 prior to earnings release on June 8th. RADAF announced awesome earnings, but possibly due to a mild warnings statement about Q3 earnings being "flat" the stock has fallen to the high 16, low 17 range (from a high of 22). obviously I was not called out and so last week I sold the Aug 20 calls for 1/2. I could have gotten a better premium from the July or Aug 17.5's but the strike price would have been below my NUT and if I got called out I would have taken a loss (although a small one compared to how far the stock has fallen). Right now my NUT is 18.22 with the stock at 17 and I am short the Aug 20 calls. My question(s) to you. Have I done OK in your opinion? Would you have used a different strategy once the stock fell? I've been reading about recovery strategies on this board. Can you tell me how you would have used them in this specific case? What action would you do now? My opinions about RADAF for the next six months are as follows. Although management warned about "flat" earnings for Q3 compared to Q2, they will still be up about 100% over last year. And Q4, with all the christmas sales should be a killer! Sales of all there products still seem to be brisk. Yearly earnings should be up over 100% compared to last year. Therefore I think the stock should start going up again, but probably not until Sept when the next earnings report is due. This is still two months away, and since there is still the possibility that it will continue to fall in the near term (volume has been very low recently) I wanted to grab some CC premies now, rather than waiting for it to go back up. Once Sept comes around, and if I haven't been called out at 20, I will hopefully be able to write some more, shorter term CC's for higher premies. What do you think? Could you also look at the chart and give me your opinion? Especially about the BB and RSI? Would you be buying some cheap puts right now? THANKS IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR HELP!!! Rob