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Technology Stocks : AT&T -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raptech who wrote (1562)	7/4/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4298

Rap, My intention is to call it as I see it, albeit how ever far from a distance. The closer I get to the subject, however, the more convinced I am that T has a tremendous load of work cut out for itself here. To put it in simple terms, I see them taking several steps backwards, technologically speaking, in order to create a platform that will be commercially viable in several years. The combination of those factors doesn't add up favorably in my opinion, published forecasts notwithstanding. >>Perhaps high risk (maybe not as high as initially appears) , but a potential jackpot.<< No doubt that a "potential" jackpot exists, and I never suggested otherwise. OTOH, I don't want to discount the potential that the risk factor may play against them in a material way, in the face of a rapidly changing landscape. And the pro formas look fine, great even, except that they look a lot like those of startups, which make assumptions on EBITDAs and cross-overs that have never really been fully tested, save for those situations when MSOs have come to realize that the walk was a lot harder than the talk, a fact which has caused some of them to curtail similar plans in the past. In some cases (including some that were started by TCI), indefinitely. There will be some stark realizations, I think, when the tires hit the road. For one thing, the religion that has made T such an icon of reliability in the past assumes some cultural tenets that are foreign to the cable industry. Half-hour trouble clearing times, for one, will, by definition, be abandoned or become a thing of the past, once the realities of branch and tree systems grabs hold. Single points of failure which can affect thousands of users simultaneously, likewise, will find the new owner of these systems perplexed at best, when architectural concessions are asked of its engineers and operations staff. It's going to take some smart re-engineering not only of facilities planning, but of operations practices, as well. And the electrical powering issues will be very interesting to watch unfold, as well. I'm being called to the BBQ grill now... Last word, I do wish T and its shareholders well, and as an ex-employee, I have a natural tendency to want to see it succeed, too. But my desires have little to do with what I see happening... on the surface, anyway. Maybe there's more to this that I don't see yet, and I'd be happy to withdraw my statements and observations in the future if and when I'm disproved. I'm not sure how much weight, if any, I'd put in pro formas on their own merits today, in a world which is getting to be, increasingly, filled with chutzpah and showmanship. Later, and Best Regards to You and All, Frank Coluccio