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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21106)	7/4/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob: 1. There is no link to Cowen study. It is proprietary information and I just have a hard copy. 2. Since everyone is focused on the upturn, that was the sole focus of their report. But they said: "We have yet to establish a good leading indicator for the peak of a cycle since total orders continue to increase as industry fundamentals begin to deteriorate at the start of a downturn." 3. A bookings focused analysis makes sense to me. Billings are a non-issue for me when looking to climb out of a downcycle. 4. They said they did look at back end and front end alone when correlated to AMAT stock price. Their conclusion: " The best leading indicator for upward stock rallies is total orders as reported by SEMI each month. A minimum turning point in total orders has preceded major stock price movements in AMAT in the past two cycles." 5. I would have to see the graph or create my own to answer that question. They gave no lag time information in their report. However, it is hard to believe that they would be so stupid as to ignore that factor.