for folks who haven't seen it, below I've posted the part of Abelson's column where he discusses Geneva, and relevance to PI companies.
before then, I've posted a key quote from Abelson's comments worth looking at with respect to the AIDS market. To date, it's been a market space where a small company with good execution and a good drug (e.g., BCHE with 3TC, AGPH w/ Viracept) can get to market very fast with minimal clinical data, and can make money quickly. Of course, lots of companies have had the same idea, and now the game may be changing.
My opinion, on balance? Several years ago, I thought it was a mistake for AGPH to focus so much on the HIV market, precisely because of the competition issue ... and I was dead wrong. It was a gutsy, smart play. They had a great drug, and great execution.
The AIDS market may be changing, and may become fragmented, and less profitable for new entries, but my best guess is there will continue to be room in each major class (RTI, NNRTI, PI) for at least one category leader, and those products will continue to do very well. And I believe Viracept will be the category leader in PIs for some time to come.
/* Abelson's summary comments. interesting points, worth noting
"Some general observations: Product proliferation will transform the AIDS
market from the previous "sequential monopolies" -- when for any given
time there was an absolutely "best" drug -- to a fragmented market. In
the process, old drugs will be "disadvantaged."
Both the costs and risks of new AIDS drug development are increasing.
The costs because of the bigger and longer clinical trials necessary.
The risks because of the rapidly evolving and less certain marketplace
and shrinking product cycles."
/* section of the column where he discusses Geneva
link I used (need to be a subscriber ... think you can subscribe for 2 weeks for free)
interactive.wsj.com
"Coverage of this year's World AIDS Conference, held in Geneva, seemed to
us a little desultory compared with that of previous years, and perhaps,
in a way, that's a positive, reflecting the notable progress made in
treating the scourge. The iron rule of journalism everywhere, remember,
is that bad news merits headlines, good news is mostly boring.
Luckily, a chap we know with a professional interest in drugs and the
diseases they treat had an operative at the conference and relayed the
on-the-spot impressions of this informed and attentive spectator. We
think they're worth passing along to you.
The first thing that struck our man in Geneva was that "last year's
treatment paradigm of 'hit hard, hit early' is being replaced by 'hit
hard, hit late.' " The reason for the change is that the extant AIDS
drugs work for only a limited time, so doctors are increasingly
reluctant to hazard exhausting their useful span prematurely.
At least some long-term users of protease inhibitors, key parts of the
drug cocktails that have proved so effective in arresting the disease,
appear vulnerable to heart problems, fat redistribution and other
serious side effects. Which could enhance the appeal of
"proteasesparing" cocktails.
DuPont's Sustiva reverse transcriptase, a promising formulation we've
talked about a couple of times in this space and which is expected to
get the nod from the FDA quite soon, was, in said operative's words, "a
big deal" for the attendees. The drug, the indications are, works better
in combination with newer transcriptase offerings, such as those from
Bristol-Myers Squibb, than with the older protease inhibitors.
Resistance after extended usage to a number of the older generation of
AIDS drugs is clearly a problem, our correspondent notes, and holds
unfavorable implications for producers like Glaxo Wellcome. The latter,
moreover, is pushing ahead with Abacavir (formerly known as 1592), which
could translate into competition for BioChemPharma, among others. The
reports, talk and buzz at the conference, he feels, were rather downbeat
for proteaseinhibitor makers, including Vertex and Agouron, as evident,
to one degree or another, in their stock action last week.
Some general observations: Product proliferation will transform the AIDS
market from the previous "sequential monopolies" -- when for any given
time there was an absolutely "best" drug -- to a fragmented market. In
the process, old drugs will be "disadvantaged."
Both the costs and risks of new AIDS drug development are increasing.
The costs because of the bigger and longer clinical trials necessary.
The risks because of the rapidly evolving and less certain marketplace
and shrinking product cycles." |
