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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (8865)	7/5/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

On beating estimates, and seasonal earnings patterns, I agree they may not have much impact on AMZN's price, however, I'm looking for "events" that might bring in the last big rush of buyers, and set AMZN up for the ride down. The SI earnings calendar says AMZN announces July 22 (courtesy of Glenn Rudolph, thanks). That's post- July options expiration, and maybe a good time to assess AMZN's price action. I don't think KTEL is a good comparison to AMZN. First of all, it has earnings. :) Second, its market cap. at its top was roughly 500 mil., and its float is truly small at 1.8 mil. I do note that the insiders weren't great at hitting the high price on their sales, but did pick off 30 (peaked at around 40), so that's not too bad. By the way, even as the insiders were selling, the stock was moving steadily upwards. NSCP may be a closer comparison. It hit a high Price-to-Sales ratio in the mid teens (15 or so), if memory serves ... about half that of AMZN (or less than half if you bring AMZN's long term debt into the picture. NSCP currently trades at a price to sales of around 5 which is still high by a lot of standards, but perhaps sustainable for high-growth tech. stocks. The insiders bailed in Oct/Nov. on the heels of the Asian crisis (though interestingly, Barksdale bought 300K shares this June, and the stock is about 50% higher since then). Looking at AMZN's insider's sales, it would seem that their "window" begins roughly 2 weeks after earnings come out, and lasts for about a month. So, I'd say if there's any selling pressure, expect to see it in early to mid. August. Another factor that will serve to increase the float, and lighten up the pressure on the short sellers is the recent filing to sell an additional 5 mil. shares (this was filed in June, so the sales and sales price might show up in the 10Q to come out at the end of this month). As mentioned, a stock split would help also, but I don't see an SEC filing for a split.