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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mkilloran who wrote (10477)	7/5/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: DR.TECH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Expect things to get going before the 9th...Qtr loss will be a non event and just a stage for the rebirth of VVUS going forward..All 3rd & 4th qtr estimates will have to go higher...The ax will be back before the news on the 9th...Tues is swing day.

To: Mkilloran who wrote (10477)	7/5/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: DaiS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Mkilloran, With 32M pa units for the new plant it makes much more sense. Population of world (6Billion) is 21 USA (280Million) equivalents. USA muse units/month post viagra is 5000 x 2 (IMS corrrection) 6 = 240,000 approx Output new plant is 32M / 8 (lines) / 12 (months) is 333,000 units per line. Therefore lines to meet post viagra USA demand is 240,000/333,000 = 0.72 lines. To meet population extrapolated world demand need 0.72 x 21 = 15 lines ie roughly 2 factories with 8 lines each. But this 15 lines has to be multiplied by two factors: 1. Factor adjusting for per capita gdp Can't see how this can be > 0.2 - can the muse buying power of the world be greater than 21 x 0.2 =4 USA equivalents. So, 15 x 0.2 = 3 lines 2. Factor adjusting for increased demand through improved marketing. If this were 5 we would get back to 15 lines again. Anyway on these bases I was wrong, there is need for a new plant as you say. If the units sold in UK and other developed countries is much greater than pre-viagra USA level, after adusting for population size, then we might get some indication just how woeful Vivus' attempts have been in the USA. Furthermore if Leland wants to have 4 new lines going by end July, they will pump out 4/0.72 = 5.55 the current USA consumption. And of world consumption only 0.72/4 x 100 = 18% would be in USA in near future. And this is overestimate because it disregards Paco production. DaiS