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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (11599)7/5/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15196
 
MARKET ACTIVITY/ WEEKEND EDITION OF TRADING NOTES JULY 5, 1998 (2)

INVESTMENT & RELATED

James Gang In Town
Low oil Prices And Shaky Stock Markets Haven't Deterred Raymond James

Calgary Sun

The stock market doldrums and the fall in oil prices haven't daunted one of the most respected and fully integrated investment dealers in the U.S. from opening an office in Calgary.

And the man who is heading the Raymond James and Associates Inc. operation here is well known to Calgarians and other Canadians through his stint as vice-president of corporate finance with Midland Walwyn Capital Inc.

Glenn Huber, senior vice-president of investment banking for Raymond James, went to Bishop Carroll high school in Calgary, and Princeton University in the U.S. -- and he can tell some famous anecdotes about F. Scott Fitzgerald's days at Princeton.

Raymond James has more than 3,000 retail sales representatives, 125 institutional salespersons and traders, 50 investment bankers and 40 research analysts located in some 1,000 offices in the the U.S., Canada and Europe.

When I asked Glenn why Raymond James decided to locate here, he said one reason was the Canadian energy sector has been historically financed by between 15 and 20 Toronto Bay St. institutions, but Raymond James can open the "gateway" for Alberta's oil and gas sector to between 300 and 500 institutional lenders in capital markets south of the border.

Huber is surely an expert in his field.

Aside from his time with Midland Walwyn Capital, he started his investment banking career with Merrill Lynch Pierre ad Ferris & Smith in New York, then went to Wood Gundy Inc. and RBC Dominion Securities Inc., where he specialized in equity and debt financing, corporate mergers and acquisitions, and general financial consulting primarily to the Canadian oil and gas industry.

The Weakening Of The Old Boys' Network

Board Shuffle/Firms are appointing candidates with expertise for their boards, and as the field of superstars dwindles under increased workloads, the boardrooms of past may change.

The Globe and Mail

Alberta Energy Co. Ltd. was focusing on expanding its international operations a few months ago when it decided to add to its board of directors.

As a result, the Calgary-based oil and gas company deliberately set out to find a new director with wide-ranging experience abroad.

In the end, after not only tapping into its own circle of contacts but also consulting two executive search firms, it selected Houston oilman Donald Stacy, who formally took up his new appointment at the company's annual meeting in April.

Mr. Stacy knows the Canadian patch well, having headed Chicago-based Amoco Corp.'s Canadian unit from 1986 to 1993. But more important, he had spent the following four years heading Amoco's Eurasian operations -- Russia and Azerbaijan, specifically -- and handled other senior executive assignments for the company in South as well as North America. He had added to his international contacts with a stint as worldwide president of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Mr. Stacy's selection is a small but telling example of changes taking place in the way Canadian companies go about choosing their directors.

The cosy, old boys' network through which many major public companies have traditionally populated their boardrooms with like-minded colleagues is gradually giving way to a more analytical approach in which they are trying to fill specific gaps in their expertise.

"You are thinking more and more about trying to bring relevant experience on to the board," Donald Macdonald, who sits on the nominating committee of Alberta Energy's board and is a director of eight other companies, said in an interview.

"I'm not saying the first tee acquaintanceship is irrelevant now," Mr. Macdonald, a high-profile former federal cabinet minister, added, "but it's far less important than it used to be."

The changes, which are by no means confined to Canada, are being driven by a variety of forces.

Company failures in the last recession helped spark a greater focus on corporate governance, while directors' legal liabilities have grown and powerful institutional investors are demanding more accountability. This has come against a background of accelerating technological change and growing globalization and competition in the business world.

Combined, all these elements have greatly increased the workload boards must carry. Estimates of how long it now takes a conscientious director to prepare for and attend a single company's board and committee meetings range anywhere from about 15 to 30 days a year -- and sometimes more -- depending on the complexity of the company's affairs.

This time pressure alone could spell an end to the phenomenon in which a small pool of serving and retired CEOs, corporate lawyers and former politicians has held large numbers of board seats. It could make the current generation of aging high-profile corporate directors in Canada the last of its kind.

As it is, few of the best-known players come remotely close to meeting recommendations made two years ago by the U.S. National Association of Corporate Directors that no serving CEO should be on the boards of more than two other public companies, and that no director should serve on more than six boards in all.

Atco Ltd. chairman and CEO Ronald Southern, for instance, sits on the boards of 10 prominent public companies outside the Atco empire, including Canadian Pacific Ltd., Imasco Ltd. and Canadian Airlines Corp.

And former Ontario premier William Davis, a corporate lawyer and professional director since he left office in 1985, now sits on 15 major boards, ranging from those of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Magna International Inc. to that of Seagram Co. Ltd.

Just how far the wave of change has gone in Canada's boardrooms is a matter of debate.

Some executive search consultants who are building substantial new business recruiting directors say the revolution is already well under way.

"It has changed completely and totally dramatically," said consultant Christopher Laubitz of Caldwell Partners Amrop International in Toronto. "It's not the way it used to be -- 'Just bring me the most predominant name brand in the marketplace.' Today, it's business wisdom first."

Patrick O'Callaghan, who heads Vancouver-based recruiter Patrick O'Callaghan & Associates, said that over the past five to 10 years the responsibility for choosing directors has shifted out of the purview of the CEO and firmly into that of board nominating or governance committees.

"What has been dramatic about that is that increasingly, those committees have taken their responsibilities very seriously," he said. "They'll go through a much more rigorous process of establishing criteria and casting a net, often with the utilization of firms like mine, really surveying the field."

Tom Long, a Toronto-based partner in recruiters Egon Zehnder International Inc., said his firm has done several director searches in the past 18 months for prominent blue-chip corporations quite capable of attracting anyone they wanted from the Toronto Club's membership list.

"But they've engaged us specifically because they know all those people and they want our advice on who are the less obvious but most promising CEOs or CEOs-in-waiting that aren't on anyone's lists but could add a lot of value," he said.

As well, he added, companies are increasingly instituting performance reviews for their directors in an effort to weed out the deadwood and find replacements willing and able to take an active role.

"There were a lot of people who were kind of empty suits," Mr. Long said. "They would come to the meetings with their binder, not having cracked it before they got there, contribute nothing to the meeting and leave."

But some corporate governance specialists and observers think the headhunters are overselling the progress that has been made.

"Well, let's just say they're really marketing the revolution," said Tom Gunn, chief investment officer of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement Board (OMERS), one of Canada's biggest pension fund investors, which these days is paying more attention to the quality of the boards of the companies in which it invests.

Governance expert Donald Thain, a business professor at the University of Western Ontario, is also skeptical.

"It's becoming more legitimate in a guarded sort of way to be a director who takes a position and does the job," said Prof. Thain, who co-authored a book published last year that was highly critical of Canadian boards.

"But the old ethic and the old culture of don't rock the boat, don't get yourself into any trouble with the rest of the board [is] still the way you get on to a lot of boards."

Indeed, Prof. Thain is not remotely impressed when he surveys the scene.

"There's this bell-shaped curve," he said. "You take 100 directors and you've got 10 that are absolutely incompetent, 10 that I would call master professionals, 40 per cent to 50 per cent average, and some not quite so bad that they're incompetent and others pretty good but not master professionals."

Identifying Canada's most sought-after directors depends on how you define the turf.

For instance, at the age of only 43, Paul Desmarais Jr., chairman and co-CEO of Montreal-based holding company Power Corp. of Canada, sits on a total of 21 boards in Canada, the United States and Europe, according to the 1998 edition of The Financial Post Directory of Directors . But the CEOs, his full-time job is to manage them through their boards.

But if you limit the universe to directors that companies bring in from outside their own orbit, the names of those best known to the world at large are those of former politicians, most of whom, like Mr. Davis and Mr. Macdonald, are also lawyers by profession.

This group also includes former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed, who now holds 12 directorships, former Alberta Energy Minister John Zaozirny, who holds 16 and erstwhile Ontario premier David Peterson, who serves on 11 boards in all.

One new arrival is Frank McKenna, who stepped down last fall after 10 years as New Brunswick's premier. He has already collected seven board seats, including a couple of corporate heavyweights, Bank of Montreal and Noranda Inc.

Some observers say former politicians can add a lot of value.

"There are enormous benefits, because business is increasingly having to work with government," said Mr. O'Callaghan, the Vancouver recruiter. "If you have people who understand the interactions between corporations and governments . . . that's a perspective that is very useful."

Prof. Thain disagrees. Vigorously.

"They are notorious in terms of thinking that a board position is easy pickings for no work, no responsibility [and] for living off their political contacts and their former reputations," he said.

This brought a sharp retort from Mr. Zaozirny.

"For an individual who purports to be an expert, those rather blanket statements display a marked lack of understanding about what actually happens with boards of directors," he said.

"There's a lot of commitment and work and responsibility and liability involved. It's anything but a free ride."

Whatever their usefulness, politicians appear to be less in demand than former and current CEOs.

The appeal of bringing in active, outside CEOs, the consultants say, is that they may well have faced challenges and opportunities in their own industries similar to those faced by the companies on whose boards they sit.

In fact, CEOs who hold outside directorships use much the same argument to justify the time they spend on other companies' business.

J.E. (Ted) Newall, who stepped down yesterday after seven years as Nova Corp.'s chief executive, but will stay on as its chairman, is a case in point.

"I have brought a lot of valuable learning back to my own company," said Mr. Newall, who has held six high-profile outside board seats for years -- including Royal Bank of Canada, Alcan Aluminium Ltd., BCE Inc. and Canadian Pacific Ltd.

By way of example, he cited a lesson he learned from a former Alcan CEO and applied when he took Nova into new markets abroad. "I remember David Culver saying once that he could learn as much about how to operate in China with a $20-million investment as with a $2-billion investment, so he thought he'd start with $20-million," Mr. Newall recalled. "That's pretty profound wisdom that you bring back."

Nevertheless, Nova's chairman also said that given the increasing time pressures on CEOs, he now thinks they should limit themselves to a maximum of four outside directorships, adding that some companies are imposing formal caps.

Search consultants say it already is growing increasingly difficult to lure highly regarded top executives to more boards.

One cited BCE's Jean Monty, 51, who already holds four outside directorships. "He is still young, he has proven himself in a global market, he has oodles of business wisdom, he's outspoken -- but he's exceedingly active, so you can't get him," the consultant said.

This means there is a high demand for former corporate chieftains.

Imasco Ltd. chairman and former CEO Purdy Crawford, 66, for instance, is a director of nine major companies outside its empire, including Canadian National Railway Co., Inco Ltd., Petro-Canada and two in the United States.

Petrocan chairman Thomas Kierans is another case in point. Mr. Kierans, 57, is the former CEO of brokerage house McLeod Young Weir Ltd., who now heads the C.D. Howe Institute, a Toronto think-tank. He also chairs Moore Corp. and investment dealer First Marathon Inc., and is a director of six other companies, including Bell Canada and Manufacturers Life Insurance Co.

Influential private investors also are well represented on the nation's boards.

For instance, Anthony Griffiths, who gained fame for turning around Mitel Corp. twice in the late 1980s and early 1990s, chairs no fewer than six companies, including Meridian Technologies Ltd., Slater Industries Inc. and Peerless Carpet Corp., and is a director of eight more.

And Toronto lawyer and investor Albert Gnat, a partner of Mr. Griffiths in several of the companies on whose boards they both sit, currently holds a total of 18 directorships, ranging from Rogers Communications Inc. to MDC Communications Corp. and Aquilium Software Corp.

Notably absent from double figures are women, although they have been gaining entry to male dominated boardrooms in greater numbers in the past few years.

A perusal of the 1998 edition of The Financial Post Directory of Directors suggests that of the relative handful of women that hold multiple directorships, Jeannine Guillevin Wood has the most clout. As well as being chairman of Laurentian Bank of Canada, she is on the boards of four other companies, including BCE and Sun life Assurance Co. of Canada.

As for the women who hold the most directorships, Montreal economist, consultant and broadcaster Dian Cohen is tied at seven with former federal cabinet minister Barbara McDougall.

Ms. Cohen's directorships include Canadian Pacific, Sun Life Assurance, Noranda Forest Inc, while Ms. McDougall's include AT&T Canada Long Distance Services Co., which she chairs, Avenor Inc., and E-L Financial Corp. Ltd.

How much do corporate directors get paid to represent shareholders' interests?

A study released last year by consultants William M. Mercer Ltd. and the Institute of Corporate Directors found that Canada's biggest companies -- those on the Toronto Stock Exchange 100-stock composite index -- generally paid their directors a total of about $35,000 to $40,000 a year in cash or a mixture of cash and stock.

The key components were: annual retainers, which averaged $15,000 for board seats, $3,000 for membership in a committee and $4,900 for chairing a committee; and attendance fees that averaged $1,000 for a meeting of the full board or a committee and $500 for directors who attended via teleconference.

Mercer concluded that this added up to a big bargain when compared with the United States, where another survey last year pegged the average annual pay for directors of 350 big U.S. companies at $65,700 (U.S.) -- $96,685 Canadian at current exchange rates.

Not surprisingly, directors on this side of the U.S. border tend to agree.

"Canadian boards don't pay people enough to get them to do it for the money -- people do it for the experience more than anything else," said Nova's Mr. Newall.

"I'd make more money if I took that time and spent it managing my own personal investments," added Mr. Newall, 62, who, proxy circulars suggest, earned about $192,000 last year in retainers from his outside boards, on top of the $815,000 in salary and 300,000 stock options he was paid by Nova.

"I've got to tell you that . . . the fees don't cover your time. It just doesn't come close," agreed Helen Sinclair, 47, who, in addition to running her own business, BankWorks Trading Inc. of Toronto, is a director of five vastly larger companies, including Toronto DominionBank and Stelco Inc.

Instead, she said, she has taken on the directorships because she figures they will help her in her own business.

Ms. Sinclair, former chairman of the Canadian Bankers Association, appears to be earning about $68,000 annually in retainers.

Still, for holders of multiple directorships, the numbers can add up to more than modest totals, particularly for those who snare jobs as non-executive chairmen, which generally pay anywhere from about $50,000 to $200,000 or more a year.

Rough calculations suggest that Imasco's Mr. Crawford, for instance, last year pulled in more than $580,000 in annual retainers from his 12 board seats, and that Petrocan's Mr. Kierans rang up about $575,000 worth.

Mr. Kierans figures he spends about 30 to 35 hours a week or 40 to 50 per cent of his working life on his directorships.

For others, however, board work is a full-time occupation.

This is the case for William Dimma, 69, the former CEO of A.E. LePage Ltd., who is regarded as one of the deans of corporate directors in Canada. He said he works a full 70 hours a week to fulfill his duties, which currently include the chairmanships of six private and public companies, including Swiss Reinsurance Co., and Perigee Inc., a Toronto based investment counselling firm that went public earlier this year. He also is a director of eight other companies, including Trilon Financial Corp. and Magellan Aerospace Corp.

"I'm a conscientious director," he said. "I read the material -- I never skip it -- and I like to think I contribute at the meetings."

He also indicated he has no desire to cut back his workload, even though he'll likely have to step down from about half his current boards when he reaches their mandatory retirement age of 70. "I enjoy the business world and as long as health holds and my mind doesn't turn to butter, I'd like to keep doing what I'm doing."

One development that could make the financial picture more enticing for directors is that many companies are now granting them stock options, the same incentive that has made near instant multi-millionaires of many CEOs and other senior executives in the bull market of recent years.

The theory is that options will more closely align directors' interests with that of shareholders.

Some observers worry, however, that the practice could invite abuse. Among them is William Riedl, president of Fairvest Securities Corp., a Toronto institutional stock brokerage that tracks governance issues for its pension and mutual fund clients.

"You've got a serious conflict of interest in many boards where the directors are responsible for administering the option plan and have unlimited discretion on how many options they grant to themselves," he said.

Nevertheless, boosting Canadian directors' compensation in some way or another may be the only way to get them to reduce the number of board seats they hold to the levels recommended by the U.S. directors' association.

That's the view of Jonathon Kovacheff, who works for the corporate governance practice of management consultants Johnston Smith International in Toronto.

"You'd have to literally pay them double or triple what they're getting paid now to make it worth their while," he said.

Market Timing's Often A Trap, Adviser Believes
The Financial Post

"Far too many investors think about investments first," says Kurt Rosentreter, vice-president of Ernst & Young Investment Advisors Inc. "What they really should be focusing on is what they need from their money, rather than specific products or what the markets in general happen to be doing at the moment."

It's somewhat of a maverick statement, coming as it does from an investment counselor. But Rosentreter, who spearheaded the launch of Ernst & Young's national investment-counseling and wealth-management practice in 1997, has the credentials and experience to support this unorthodoxy.

He is a public speaker on personal finance matters and an author: His latest book, 50 Tax-Smart Investing Strategies, provides a wealth of tips and suggestions on how to maximize after-tax returns.

Obtaining his honors finance degree (for investment management, economics and general finance) from the University of Manitoba in 1989, he sold investment products in the banking industry briefly. He then went to work for E&Y, where he acquired his Chartered Accountant designation, accreditation as a Chartered Financial Planner, and completed the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants' advanced tax program.

He is director of membership for the Ontario Association of Financial Planners (Central Ontario chapter), exam setter for the Financial Planning Standards Council of Canada, and the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants' representative on the Financial Planning Standards Council education committee.

The first chapter of his latest book is devoted entirely to the effect of marginal tax rates on different types of investment yields. Subsequent sections deal with topics such as buying short-term assets that mature just after the yearend (in order to defer tax), or converting interest income into lower-taxed dividends.

"My background and training have given me a fairly well rounded knowledge of all aspects of finance, not just investing," Rosentreter explains. "It's enabled me to keep my perspective.

"Investing should be part of an overall strategy that takes into account factors such as cash-flow needs, retirement and estate planning goals, time horizons and so on," he says. "Once you determine your needs, the products tend to fall into place automatically."

"At Ernst & Young we ... don't believe in market timing," Rosentreter adds.

"After all, studies have shown that the markets rise 70% of the time and go down only 30% of the time. If you sit on the sidelines waiting for the markets to turn around, you'll probably lose more than you stand to gain. That's why we suggest that you should be fully invested at all times."

Despite prevailing concerns that the stock markets are over-extended these days, Rosentreter is bullish, in part because of the tax implications. "The top tax rate on interest income is about 50%, whereas the rate on dividends is only about 33%, and the rate on capital gains is about 38%. When you look at the after-tax return -- and that's what we always do -- then equities make a lot of sense at any time.

"That's not to say you should always have all your money in stocks, because you need to keep a balance in your portfolio," he adds. "But on the other hand, equities should never be ignored either. Even a holding of, say, 5% in a retiree's portfolio can help enhance overall returns without creating too much risk. And that's the name of the game.

"Rather than limiting ourselves to helping clients choose specific investments, we act as overall financial managers," Rosentreter says.

He adds that because his advice is based on fees only, rather than on sales commissions, he can be totally objective when it comes to making the right choices.

"We're not going to be affected by the fact that a particular issuer is paying hefty commissions to promote his or her product," Rosentreter says. "We're going to choose the products that are right for each individual, based on all the other financial considerations."



To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (11599)7/5/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15196
 
MARKET ACTIVITY/ WEEKEND EDITION OF TRADING NOTES JULY 5, 1998 (4)

THE WEEK AHEAD

Long Weekend Unlikely To Stem Upward Bias
MSNBC

To quote Bruce Springsteen: "Say goodbye, it's Independence Day." Financial markets are closed Friday in observance of the Fourth of July amid expectations the weekend festivities will continue when trading resumes Monday.

Hopes are rising the Dow will soon make a run at its current record of 9,211.84. The blue-chip proxy looks to play catch-up to the S&P 500, which hit four record closes in the six trading days prior to Thursday's modest setback. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, stands 23.61 points below its April 22 standard of 1,917.61 following Thursday's 1.1% decline.

Assuming the recent pattern of stability in Asian financial markets does not reverse, Wall Street's focus is likely to turn to domestic issues. The second-quarter reporting season begins next week with a smattering of releases. Included in the mix are reports from Motorola (MOT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Dallas Semiconductor (DS). Outside of tech, FDX Corp. (FDX) is the highlight.

The economic calendar for the week ahead is fairly light. Friday brings the Producer Price Index for June and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July. Reports on car sales, retail sales and wholesale inventories are due earlier in the week. With the Fed having left interest rates unchanged this week amid signs an economic slowdown is at hand, the data are not likely to provide any dramatic impetus for trading.

Given the fact that little or no fireworks are expected from earnings and the economic calendar, further gains will have to come from other factors. Namely, optimism that forthcoming earnings will not be as woeful as once feared and a continuation of the momentum demonstrated in the past two weeks. Even some of the market's less optimistic players concede more gains are likely in the days ahead.

"Technically, the market can go higher because it acts well on good volume," said Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Landenburg Thalmann & Co. "All the favorable fundamentals remain in place."

Dwyer is troubled, however, that -- by his estimation -- the familiar refrain of solid economic growth and low inflation is already incorporated into the market. "A lot of the good news is already priced in," he said.

The strategist said blue-chip stocks have risen to egregiously high valuation levels and recommends investors switch some funds into smaller caps. That strategy has repeatedly proved to be dangerous, but Dwyer says investors with "patience" will be rewarded.

"You can have more upside because the risk-reward [in blue chip stocks] isn't favorable in my opinion," he said. "I'd rather be in the beaten down small-cap arena because if the Dow comes down, small caps may not rally, but they will go down less."

Dwyer is further bullish on the group because many smaller stocks trade at price-to-earnings ratios that are paltry relative to larger issues, given their higher growth prospects.

Among the names Dwyer recommends is real estate developer Bluegreen Corp. (BXG), which trades at a P/E of 12.7 times its fiscal 1999 earnings, which are projected to grow 56.5%. Also, he likes women's fashion concern Candie's (CAND), which trades at 14.7 times fiscal 1999 earnings that are expected to grow 62%. Conversely, the S&P 500 is trading at some 22.4 times 1999 earnings, which are projected to grow just 7.5%.

A less restrained view of the prospects for major indices comes from Bill Meehan, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, although he suspects more profit taking could be in the immediate future, particularly for tech stocks. Thereafter, he believes the tech leadership will recover while financially sensitive sectors like banks and housing will return to levels not seen since April.

"If there's a surprise out there, it will be the market rallies much stronger than even a lot of the bulls believe is possible," Meehan said. "I think there are things coming to a point where we could turn excessively positive and run this market up substantially."

The market watcher said the Dow could approach 10,000 by the end of the third quarter or beginning of the fourth.

But hold the champagne and party streamers.

Meehan further reports the S&P 500 in the last 200 days is moving in lock step with the pattern of the 200 days beginning August 22, 1986, according to a computer program he asked to search the entire history of the market for chart patterns similar to the current environment.

"If the pattern continues, it would indicate you have the potential for a summer rally here that would blow away most of the bulls' targets," he said. "It could get us to levels that are absurdly valued [but] we know how that ended last time."

For those of you without long memories, 200 days from Aug. 22, 1986 was the onset of a big run-up in the S&P 500. Those gains topped out in August 1987, auguring the Dow's 22.6% debacle on Oct. 19, 1987.

Meehan expects major indices to decline as much as 30% from the heights he sees them reaching in the coming months. But there's a silver lining. First, a 30% drop from 10,000 leaves the Dow at 7,000, which "wouldn't wipe out much of the current bull market," he observes. Secondly, Fed Chairman Greenspan has "plenty of room to maneuver when you-know-what hits the fan, because the Fed has kept short-term rates relatively high."

There, feel better?

What To Watch Out For This Month
Money Daily
July 1, 1998

The economic slowdown will have a big impact on your investments. Here's a guide to economic news that will help you understand how.

When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping. This old twist on an even older maxim pretty much explains the astonishing growth of the U.S. economy in the face of an Asian- induced worldwide slowdown.

It's been the American consumer against the world, and the consumer's been winning.

But now it appears that the American shopper is losing the battle. A sharp upturn in the trade deficit, because the U.S. is exporting so much less to Asia, combined with a few other factors, may have nearly flattened U.S. growth for the second quarter.

In some ways, this is a good thing. The slowdown removes any fear the Fed will raise rates in the near term, a move that would have taken the steam out of stocks and driven bond prices down.

But will Asian weakness make the U.S. economy slow too much? If not, will the tight U.S labor markets finally spark wage and price increases big enough to cause inflation? And will job growth remain strong enough to sustain the consumer-led economic expansion?

These are some of the questions that will have economists turning to the indicators listed in our economic datebook this month. Here are the ones to pay attention to, and why.

* Trade Top on the list are the trade figures. The U.S. trade deficit slipped from an average of $11.5 billion a month in the first quarter, to probably $14.5 billion in the second. That's a lot. "Things could fall apart," says Stan Shipley, an economist with Merrill Lynch. "At some point, the trade deficit may get so bad, it becomes an unstable situation." Not likely this year, but possible in 1999, he says. Part of the problem is the strong U.S. currency. "It looks like we may be losing market share in Europe because of the strong dollar," says Robert Mellman, senior economist at JP Morgan.

* Economic growth Along with the ballooning trade deficit, two other factors are causing an economic slowdown. One is the sharp reduction in the first quarter buildup of inventories. "A significant inventory adjustment will cause a hit to GDP and a hit to production," says John Silvia, the chief economist at Scudder Kemper Funds. The second factor putting the brakes on growth is a cutback in capital spending by firms. Will this be enough to slow down job creation and thus cut back on income and consumer spending? To find out, economists will be watching durable goods orders, which show how much businesses are putting into capital spending.

* Job growth Even though the economy has probably slowed dramatically in the second quarter, many economists are still worried that a tight labor market may cause wage inflation. They will be looking at the employment cost index to find out. Productivity numbers are also important. If productivity increases, companies can pay workers more without causing inflation, so wage hikes are less of a concern.

* Consumer spending Too much job growth can cause another problem as well -- excessive spending that can lead to concerns the Fed may start worrying about inflation again. "The Fed does not like job growth of 230,000 a month, because at that level you are getting too much income, and consumers are spending more," says Shipley. "The Fed will accept 190,000 a month growth."

Finally, don't forget about a new twist: the General Motors (NYSE: GM) wild card. The strike against GM, which has shut down 90% of the company's North American capacity and is causing difficulties for suppliers, will create problems for economists, too.

Because of the strike, economic data will contain much more "noise" than normal. It will have a big impact on everything from reported hourly earnings to GDP growth.

How much? No one knows for sure, and that is the point. Shipley thinks the strike will knock a half a percentage point off of growth in the second quarter. He may or may not be right. But one thing is certain, the strike will make it harder for economists to understand underlying economic trends. And that will add to confusion among investors -- who dislike few things as much as they dislike uncertainty.

New Reports Point To Slower Growth
Associated Press

A couple of new economic reports from the government point to signs that the U.S. economy's robust growth rate is slowing.

Asian economic turmoil and the General Motors strike slowed U.S. job growth in June, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.5% from a 28-year-low during the two previous months.

Despite the increase, from 4.3%, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained well below the 5% rate of a year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.

"It was still quite low by recent historical standards," said Katharine G. Abraham, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employers added a moderate 205,000 jobs to their payrolls in June, compared with 309,000 in May. Most of the gains came in services. Manufacturers cut 29,000 jobs, the fourth decline in five months and the worst since March 1996.

That reflected drops in industries either facing stiff competition from Asian imports or loss of export sales to Asia, including apparel, textiles, paper products and electronic components.

"This is a definite sign the economy is slowing," said economist Sung Won Sohn of Norwest in Minneapolis. "The danger is it will continue to slow and decelerate for too long. Toward yearend we could be talking about an economy that is too weak rather than too strong."

Payrolls fell by 6,000 in the auto industry, reflecting the June 5 strike at GM's stamping plant in Flint, Mich. The report hasn't yet registered the impact of subsequent shutdowns.

In another report, the Labor Department Thursday said the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits surged last week because of the GM strike. They jumped by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 390,000, the highest level since March 1997.

That followed increases of 35,000 the previous week and 17,000 two weeks earlier. The department said the bulk of the latest increase came in three states - Michigan, Ohio and New York - and officials there attributed most to the strike.

A third report, on factory orders in May, reflected distress in manufacturing even before the strike. Orders dropped 1.6% to a seasonally $333 billion, the Commerce Department said. It was the first decline since February and the worst since December.

Decreases were widespread. They were sharpest in electronic components, aircraft and food products. A survey by the National Association of Purchasing Management, released Wednesday, suggested manufacturing activity declined again in June.

The June unemployment and May factory orders reports, along with other signs economic growth has moderated from the very rapid 5.4% annual rate of the first three months of the year, probably helped persuade Federal Reserve policy-makers Wednesday to leave short-term interest rates unchanged.

The increase in the overall unemployment rate was the largest since June 1997, when it also rose two-tenths of a percentage point, to 5%.

Service industries, meanwhile, continued to report strong job gains in June. Temporary-help firms added 32,000 and engineering and management services increased by 25,000.

Employment in finance, insurance and real estate grew by 30,000 over the month. During the past year, the industry group has grown about 50% faster than the rest of the economy, adding a quarter of a million jobs.

Computer-related and health services also showed large advances. Retailers added 53,000 jobs - 21,000 of them at restaurants and bars. Construction jobs increased by 20,000, helped by a housing boom spurred by low interest rates related to the Asian crisis.

In two other signs of softness, the average workweek for nonfarm, nonsupervisory workers edged down to 34.6 hours from 34.7 hours. Average hourly earnings rose just one cent, to $12.74. It was the smallest increase since February 1996.

By demographic group, the unemployment rate in June was 3.7% for men, 4.1% for women, 14.6% for teen-agers, 4% for whites, 8.2% for blacks and 7.6% for Hispanics.

Summertime, And The Buying Is Easy
CBS MarketWatch

It's at sleepy times like these, when Manhattan becomes a ghost town, that individual investors can dance on Wall Street without getting trampled by the herd.

Jefferies & Co. strategist Art Hogan sees stocks "drifting higher in lackluster volume" as a Fourth of July holiday mode prevails. He even noted the thin automobile traffic coming into Manhattan on Tuesday.

Sure, the spurt of oil prices and oil stocks Tuesday has a lot to do with reports of a U.S. aircraft strike in Iraq. But you can bet your portfolio that oil's price swings were exaggerated because of light trading activity on Wall Street and in futures pits.

We may see the same exaggerations, those unreasonable highs and grotesque lows, in the wake of economic numbers that will wash over Wall Street this short holiday week. It may be summer, but Washington is working.

Besides Thursday's June non-farm payrolls report, Washington will release factory orders and construction spending. Bond and stock investors also will keep an eye on the National Association of Purchasing Managers' June manufacturing index on Wednesday, the first day of July.

Strong signs of a wildfire economy are almost certain to send bond yields spurting and bond prices sliding -- at least for an hour or two. That's where the summer opportunity arises.

CBS MarketWatch chief economist Irwin Kellner and interest rate commentator Michael Bazdarich both see an opportunity for investors looking for bonds. (See our Kellner and Bazdarich reports.)

You'd think, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yielding near all time lows of 5.6 percent, that bonds belong in a nursing home. Not so.

"The yield on the government's bellwether 30-year bond is determined by two factors: supply and demand and the rate of inflation," says Kellner from New York. "With Washington running a budget surplus, the supply of long-dated Treasuries is being reduced. This makes them more valuable, thus boosting their price and cutting their yield."

And the spread between consumer inflation and the bond's yield? "It should be around 3 percentage points; it is over 4 points today," Kellner says. "This suggests that long-term rates should descend towards the 5 percent zone by year-end, and move even lower next year."

If that happens, and investors use any signs of a sizzling hot economy later this week to buy bonds at a bargain, bond holders will be getting a thick yield and capital appreciation as bond prices rise.

That's one example of how investors can seize the summer day.

Others are in the stock market. We've heard a lot about fund managers dressing up their porfolios at the end of the June quarter, which happens Tuesday. Amid Nasdaq and NYSE trading that might fall 20 percent or more below average volume, investors might find this is a good time to both search for bargains and sell their winners.

That's because fund managers generally dump their losers by quarter's end and fortify their winning positions. CBS MarketWatch's New High-Low screen might point to companies whose shares are hitting those unreasonable highs or nasty lows. (The screen is updated every 15 minutes and shows new 52-week highs and lows on Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.)

On the low (read: possible bargain) end, investors Tuesday continued to dump shares of closed-end Indonesia Fund (IF) on the NYSE. After all, what red-blooded American fund manager wants his customers to see a stake in Indonesia these days? The country's currency has collapsed; its largest companies are bankrupt.

On Nasdaq, shares of CyberMedia (CYBR) are struggling after a CEO resigned and the maker of personal computer self-help software diappointed Wall Street. Is it a bargain or a sinking ship?

On the positive side, America Online shares (AOL) are hitting highs. So are shares of network equipment maker Cisco Systems (CSCO). These two tech stocks, participating in the Internet boom, might just have room to run, Wall Street experts say.

One high-flier that might be ready for a pause is Seattle department store chain Nordstrom (NOBE). As consumer confidence notches 30-year highs, wary investors just might want to ask themselves whether a steep fall in U.S. economic growth this summer might be a forewarning of a miserable autumn and winter for retailers.

'Do As I Do, Not As I Say' Investor Strategy

Seldom are words more reassuring to investors in individual stocks than those of Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett as they talk honestly about how they use common sense to recognize great buys.

Buy what you know, says Lynch, who made his legend at Fidelity Magellan Fund as he invested in stocks including carmaker Chrysler, baker Au Bon Pain and undertaker Service Corp. Buy great brands that in the long run will deliver superior earnings compared with today's stock price, says billionaire Buffett, whose company Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a 1,200%, $16 billion profit in Coca-Cola.

What's that laughter you're hearing off to the side? None other than Paul Samuelson, the Nobel laureate, professor emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and best-selling textbook author known to virtually every student who read assignments in Introduction to Economics.

Samuelson is saying it is impossible for great investors and stellar traders to really explain how they succeed. "I know a lot of guys who laughed all the way to some very big banks, but they could not pass it on," Samuelson was saying last week in a Manhattan auditorium at giant pension fund manager TIAA-CREF.

His audience of a few hundred of Wall Street's best number-crunchers was chuckling, charmed by the spunky 83-year-old and his attitude toward the markets. As a group, the crowd believes everything in the financial markets can be demonstrated in an equation, such as the Black-Scholes options pricing model co-authored by the late Fischer Black. The crowd was gathered for a symposium inaugurating the Fischer Black Memorial Foundation. The Black-Scholes model underlies most derivatives trading and was celebrated with a Nobel prize last year. The foundation honors the late co-author.

Explanation laughable

Paraphrasing Lynch, Samuelson is saying, "Invest in something you know." He sneers and pauses for effect. "There's a good candy bar in your vicinity. Buy a stock. Can you make it any more stupid," he asks, joining the laughter that fills the auditorium.

Don't take him wrong. Afterward, Samuelson emphasized that he meant no offense. Indeed, he had been quick to recognize both men as brilliant. Lynch knows individual stocks in detail.

"He could enumerate 175 different savings and loan companies and tell you where the bodies were buried in each one of them," Samuelson recounted. Of course, Lynch could do this with the extraordinary help of Fidelity analysts and the best Wall Street research.

"I have great respect for Warren Buffett. He's a lot richer than I am," Samuelson said. "But I don't have great respect for his explanation of how he does it. He says any fool would know the Washington Post Co. was a steal at the price that he bought it." But when Buffett bought that stock in 1973, Samuelson was writing a column for Newsweek, a Washington Post unit, and did not recognize the value Buffett and his fools could see.

Gleaning insights

Samuelson provides comfort to anyone who has bought a how-to book on stock picking and then become frustrated trying to follow its generalizations printed as boldfaced rules. Consider, too, the case of the three sharp authors of a book selling well now, The Gorilla Game: An investor's guide to picking winners in high technology. As they were completing the book and their summary of what had made their own stock picking outstandingly successful, they could not agree on which 10 stocks their rules said to buy next.

So why bother reading Buffett, Lynch or any other proven investor? Because they are frequently fun, upbeat and great with a phrase. Note, too, that Buffett learned much of his technique from Ben Graham. He's the author and father of security analysis who influenced enough people that rarely does a stock fall to levels he would consider a bargain.

Plus, there's always the chance that you might be capable of gleaning insights and using them to pick stocks successfully. Somebody has to sort good stocks from bad and make the market efficient. We can't all be mindlessly in index funds.

A Look Ahead

cnnfn.com

Week's Upcoming Earnings

canoe2.canoe.ca

Market Watch

tfc.com







To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (11599)7/6/1998 7:56:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
CORP. / Windsor Energy Corp Management Changes

WINDSOR ENERGY CORPORATION ANNOUNCES MANAGEMENT CHANGES

Date: 7/6/98 8:05:05 AM
Stock Symbol: WNS

Windsor Energy Corporation (TSE, AMEX: WNS), announced the following
management changes at its annual shareholders meeting, held in Calgary,
Alberta yesterday.

Thomas H. Rinehart of Tulsa, Oklahoma takes over as Chief Executive Officer.
Mr. Rinehart, currently a director of the Corporation's main U.S.,
subsidiary, Windsor Energy (U.S.) Inc., has been involved with the
Corporation since its inception. The change in focus of the Corporation from
property acquisition to the development and management of its assets led the
Board to ask Mr. Rinehart to bring his 40 years of oil industry management
experience to the job. Mr. Rinehart, through his own private company, owns
and operates numerous gas processing facilities in five different states.

Thomas E. Hogan, former CEO, will remain on the board of directors.

David F. Chavenson of Houston, Texas, joined the board of directors.
Mr. Chavenson, currently VP Finance and CFO of the Rutherford Moran Oil
Corporation, a Nasdaq traded company with annual capital expenditures of
approximately US $100,000,000, brings to the Corporation approximately 20
years experience in oil and gas public finance.

Windsor also announces that it has retained CIBC Oppenheimer Corp. to assist
the Company in exploring various strategic alternatives to maximize
shareholder value.



To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (11599)7/11/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
MARKET ACTIVITY/ WEEKEND EDITION OF TRADING NOTES JULY 12, 1998 (1)

KERM'S NOTE: Because I didn't provide coverage of market activity over the past few days, I am covering the Canadian markets for the past three day period, beginning with Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY CANADIAN MARKET OVERVIEW

Toronto Stocks End Slightly Lower On Earnings Reports

When the bulls are running on Wall Street, the momentum is usually enough to lift the Toronto stock market into positive territory. That didn't happen Wednesday.

Toronto stocks ended slightly lower on Wednesday on worry that earnings reports would disappoint and on slumping gold bullion prices due to persistent concern Japanese tax reforms would not go far enough to revive ailing Asian economies.

''It was a wrestling match between a positive bond environment and inflows of money from mutual funds versus earnings reports,'' said Jim Doak, president of Enterprise Capital Management Inc.

Also earlier in the day, ABC Funds portfolio manager Irwin Michael said ''The market's pretty light. It's an event market where you get news on a company and it triggers and it drags other companies up in the sector,''

''Gold's down, banks are down on profit-taking,'' Rolie Bradley of Maison Placements Canada Inc. said earlier in the trading day.

Gold eased in European spot trade on news that the yellow metal will make up 15 percent of the new European Central Bank's planned 39.5 billion Ecus (US$43 billion) reserves. The sell-off was attributed to disappointment that the ECB had not mentioned any freeze on central bank sales by European countries nor made clear how reserves would be managed. The bank also said members were free to chart their own course on future gold sales and were not constrained by the 15 percent level.

"They're still suffering from a hangover that doesn't seem to want to go away," said Fred Ketchen, senior vice-president at ScotiaMcLeod.

The hangover stems from the so-called Asian contagion, the widespread bank failures and currency devaluations that have hobbled many of Asia's economies since last fall.

Countries that are heavily dependent on natural resources, such as Canada, have endured volatile stock swings since then because of the perception they will be hurt by shrinking Asian demand for commodities.

The Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite index fell 3.33 points to 7451.27, with gold and base metals miners cutting almost 10 points from the benchmark. About 104.8 million shares changed hands on the TSE, down from 117.6 million shares traded on Tuesday. Trading value was $1.929 billion. Declines outpaced gains 538 to 457 with 294 issues unchanged.

Seven of the 14 TSE 300 subgroups were up.

The top performer was the communications sector, up 0.72 per cent as Class B shares of Cinar Films gained $3.20 to $36.00. Cinar reported six-month earnings Wednesday of $8.8 million, up from $5.5 million. CanWest Global was up $1.05 at $25.00. The Winnipeg-based broadcaster said the sale of a 19 per cent interest in Australia's Network TEN boosted its quarterly earnings to $100.5 million, up $64.1 million from a year earlier.

Pipelines and utilities gained 0.69 per cent and 0.68 per cent respectively.

Bank stocks and other lenders rose as bond yields hovered near record lows. Newcourt Credit Group Inc. (NCT/TSE) climbed 95› to $73.75 and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (cm/tse) rose $0.15 to $49.50. Power Financial Corp. (PWF/TSE), which includes Great-West Lifeco. Inc., Investors Group Inc. and The Pargesa Group among its subsidiaries, rose $1.45 to a record $36.45. Power Corp. (POW/TSE), the holding company for Power Financial, jumped $1.40 to a 52-week high of $36.75.

Seven of the 14 subgroups were down.

August COMEX gold fell $1.70 to $294.20, dragging Toronto's heavily weighted gold and precious metals subindex down 1.6 percent. Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX/TSE) slipped $0.30 to $27.80 and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG/TSE) fell $0.40 to $16.85 Franco Nevada lost $0.60 cents to $30.50, to $16.85. Meridian Gold closed at $4.00, down $0.25 cents as the price of bullion fell US$1.70 to US$293.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Among base metal miners, Inco Ltd. (N/TSE) fell 40› to $18.75, Noranda Inc. (NOR/TSE) fell 95› to $24.25 and Alcan Aluminium Ltd. (AL/TSE) fell 45› to $40.25.

The TSE paper and forest products index lost 0.48% and the oil and gas sector slipped 0.38% or 23,02 to 6111.72.. Among the sub-components of the oil & gas composite index, the integrated oil's fell 0.6% or 53.98 to 8480.35. The oil & gas producers fell 0.3% or 14.20 to 5438.89 and the oil & gas services lost 0.4% or 9.71 to 2347.25.

Northstar Energy, Petro-Canada, Probe Exploration, Gulf Canada Resources, Poco Petroleums, Canadian Natural Resources, Renaissance Energy, Bonavista Petroleum and Beau Canada Exploration were among the top 50 most active traded issues on the TSE. Oil & gas service issues were not represented.

Canadian Natural Resources gained $0.90 to $26.75 and Seven Seas Petroleum (u) $0.65 to $19.25.

On the flipside, Pioneer Natural Canada fell $1.50 to $34.50, Canadian Occidental Petroleum $1.05 to $30.35, Berkley Petroleum $0.80 to $12.00, Gulfstream Resources $0.70 to $3.85, Amber Energy $0.60 to $12.05 and Imperial Oil $0.55 to $25.70. Among service or oil related issues, Enerflex Systems fell $2.00 to $35.00, Ryan Energy $0.65 to $5.75 and Akiita Drilling $0.50 to $9.75.

Northern Telecom Ltd. (NTL/TSE) lost $0.75 to $84.25 as the company struggled to assuage investors' doubts that its purchase of Bay Networks Inc. last month for $7.27 billion will add value to the stock. "Northern Telecom is trying to convince the Street it's a good deal," said Andrew Martyn, a portfolio manager at Davis-Rea Ltd.

Newbridge Networks Corp. (NNC/TSE) rose $1 to $38 as some investors wagered the stock has farther to run in the near future. Options to buy Newbridge for $40 a share before July 18 soared 140% on trading of 145 contracts.

One of the biggest losers was in the industrial products sector. Geac Computer Corp. Ltd. (GAC/TSE) fell $7.15 to $42.85 in heavy trade after posting fourth quarter earnings that looked solid but failed to satisfy the market. Geac reported a fourth quarter profit of $0.82 a share versus $0.33 in the year-ago period but investors said a highly favorable tax rate was partly responsible. GEAC warned analysts in a morning conference call that next year it would like post lower earnings than expected. Some investors wre betting the stock will fall further. Put options to sell the stock at $42.50 jumped 178% on trading of 93 contracts.

Hyal Pharmaceutical Corp. (HPC/TSE) led the most actives, falling C$0.84 to C$1.89 as 4.14 million shares changed hands. The company issued a statement on Tuesday saying it was not sure why trade in its shares was so heavy.

Philip Services Corp. (PHV/TSE) dropped C$0.45 to C$5.15 after touching a new low of C$4.75. The Hamilton, Ontario-based scrap metal recycling firm said it had won approval for a $60 million credit draw.

Air Canada (AC/TSE) shed C$0.30 to C$12.90 with 1.2 million shares trading ahead of its June traffic report to be released on Friday and in tandem with lower share values in the U.S. transport sector.

Other noteworthy issues included Power Corp of Canada (POW/TSE), which rose C$1.40 to C$36.75 in moderate volume, and Inco Ltd. (N/TSE), which fell C$0.40 to C$18.75 in light volume.

Other Canadian markets were mixed. The Montreal Exchange portfolio fell 6.1 points, or 0.2%, to 3778.82. The Vancouver Stock Exchange gained 2.38 points, or 0.5%, to 530.37.

The Alberta Stock Exchange combined value index fell 0.44 to 2108.62. Declining issues outnumbered advancing issues 124 to 117 with anither 99 unchanged.

Among oil related issues, Colt Energy, Alta Pacific Capital, Sunfire Energy, First Star Energy, Wolverine Energy, Canop Worldwide, Tappit Resources, Anvil Resources and Ionic Energy were among the top25 most active issues on the ASE.

Red Sea Oil gained $0.15 to $1.75, Stellarton Energy $0.15 to $2.30, Petrofield Industries $0.12 to $0.40, BW Technologies $0.10 to $3.90, Progress Energy A $0.10 to $2.25 and Willow Creek $0.10 to $0.95.

On the downside, Underbalanced Drilling continued its slide, finishing down $0.25 to $1.25, Golden Trend Petroleum $0.20 to $0.30, Scarlet Exploration $0.13 to $0.72, Nycan Energy $0.12 to $0.63 and Cirque Energy $0.10 to $2.50.

The Canadian dollar trimmed some earlier losses to end North American trade a bit firmer around C$1.4715 (US$0.6796) on Wednesday, but received no strong support.

Trading was stuck in a tight band in the absence of news on the fundamentals front, and some corporate Canada buying interest capped moves to test the further downside of the Canadian dollar towards its record intra-day low of C$1.4754 (US$0.6778), hit on June 22, and the overseas trading low of C$1.4767 (US$0.6872), reached on June 16.

''It just stalled around the C$1.4740 (US$0.6784) level. We just saw corporate interest to sell some (U.S.) dollars up there,'' said one trader. ''I think it was a one-time transaction. They were looking to buy Canada.''

''The market was long U.S., looking to go through the C$1.4750 (US$0.6780) level, but just ran out of gas,'' he said.

On the chart, short-term stochastics data show U.S. dollars were slightly overbought against the Canadian unit. The U.S. dollar is well supported at C$1.4684 (US$0.6810), where the 21-day moving average is.

The U.S. currency eased, but stayed above 139 yen as yen buyers were unhappy with a lack of details in Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto's pledge overnight to offer tax cuts through structural reform next year.

The market may have been expecting too much too quickly.

In Japan, the process of gaining consensus in political and bureaucratic circles takes time. Without technical support from the Finance Ministry officials who actually write details of tax reform, the prime minister cannot announce details.

It is still unclear how the government will be able to finance permanent, as opposed to stop-gap, income and business tax cuts big enough to boost consumer spending when its fiscal deficit is on the rise. In addition, a tax system overhaul may not result in a net tax cut as the reforms under deliberation would result in a broadening of the taxation base.

In cross trading, the Canadian unit edged up to 1.2354 marks from 1.2318 marks at the previous close here, and to 94.68 yen from 94.16 yen as the German and Japanese currencies fell against the U.S. dollar.

There is no major economic indicator release that could affect the market until Friday, when Canada's June jobs data and U.S. June producer price index are released.

Economists on average forecast the Canadian jobless rate at 8.4 percent, unchanged from May. Employment is expected to increase by 26,000 after falling by 7,300 in May, which came in contrast to a sharp gain in April. General Motors plant shutdowns and construction strikes in Ontario are expected to be a drag on employment.

The U.S. June PPI is forecast to be unchanged after a 0.2-percent rise in May. The core rate, excluding food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.1 percent after a 0.2-percent rise.

Debate on Japanese tax reform by government and ruling party advisory panels will not resume until after the July 12 Upper House elections.

These councils usually end their debates with specific proposals by year end, in time for parliamentary discussions between January and March for the new fiscal year starting on April 1.

Concern over Russia's financial health and Japan's recession are providing fresh safe-haven buying of the U.S. dollar, which puts downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

''There's still uncertainty in Asia and Russia. It's a U.S. dollar buy story,'' said Reid Farrill, executive director, foreign exchange, at CIBC Wood Gundy Securities. ''Natural Canadian dollar buyers are not there.''

Canadian bonds ended flat to weaker in sympathy with U.S. bonds on Wednesday after staging a rally in the long end of the yield curve on Tuesday.

U.S. treasuries drifted lower in thin trading as the U.S. dollar gave up some earlier gains against the yen. In earlier trade, U.S. bonds were steady in tandem with a rise in the U.S. dollar against key currencies after the market sold yen because of a lack of details in Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto's pledge to offer tax cuts through structural reform next year.

As players took profits, Canada's benchmark 30-year bond fell C$0.41 to C$136.88, yielding 5.450 percent. On the chart, it has support at C$136.49, and below that, at C$135.74.

''I think the market is kind of tired right now, just wants to take a bit of a rest,'' said Sheldon Dong, manager of fixed-income research at Midland Walwyn Capital Inc. ''It's technical trading right now. Canada broke new highs yesterday and the U.S. did not do anything. Not a lot of follow-through.''

On Tuesday here, Canada's 30-year bond surged on speculative buying, pushing down its yield to a record low of 5.421 percent

The U.S. 30-year bond fell 11/32 to yield 5.62 percent after initial gains. The spread between the two was 17 basis points after 18 points at the previous close here.

''Yesterday Canadian bonds drifted to a record low (in yield), so it's hard to say that a lower Canadian dollar is leading to a sharp restraint on Canadian bond performance,'' said Harvinder Kalirai, economist at I.D.E.A. in New York.

''We outperformed yesterday, but the general trend is towards underperformance versus the U.S. I don't necessarily think that's because of the Canadian dollar,'' he said.

Dollar/yen moves, reflecting rising and fading hopes of Japanese action to boost the economy, are seen stuck in a tight range. This will also leave North American bonds in narrow bands for a while.

Japan's Prime Minister Hashimoto, desperate to survive the weekend Upper House election, offered overnight a tax cut through structural reform next year, without giving details.

It is unclear how the government will be able to finance permanent, as opposed to stop-gap ,income and business tax cuts big enough to boost consumer spending while its fiscal deficit is on the rise. In addition, an overhaul of the tax system may not result in a net tax cut as the reform under deliberation would result in a broadening of a taxation base.

Debate on Japanese tax reform by government and ruling party advisory panels will not resume until after the July 12 Upper House elections.

These councils usually end their debates with specific proposals by year end, in time for parliamentary discussions between January and March for the new fiscal year starting on April 1.

There are no major economic indicator releases that could affect the market until Friday, when Canada's June jobs data and the U.S. June producer price index are due for release.

Economists on average forecast the jobless rate at 8.4 percent, unchanged from May. Employment is expected to show an increase of 26,000 after falling by 7,300 in May. There was a sharp gain in April. General Motors plant shutdowns and Ontario construction strikes are expected to be a drag on employment.

The U.S. June PPI is forecast to be unchanged after a 0.2% rise in May. The core rate, excluding food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.1 percent after a 0.2-percent rise.

The money market was little changed in quiet trading.

Canada's three-month when issued T-bill traded with a yield of 4.81 percent, compared with 4.82 percent at the previous close here.