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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TPII - Year 2000 (Y2K); Groupware; Client Server Migration -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (7931)	7/6/1998 12:33:00 AM
From: JOHN IACOVACCI	Respond to of 10903

Interesting outcome from negative drop. I'm a confessed stock board addict. I spend way to much time reading thousands of posts on all different stocks. Since Thursdays run down I'm starting to see TPII popping up on different Y2K boards about this being a good buying opportunity. Could positive buying come out of negative drop. Also I would like some comments on Thursdays movement. If everyone was selling why would the stock go up from its .62 cent bid .75 ask price. With the 390,000 share volume its hard to fathom that all of a sudden new buyers were sitting around waiting for stock price to drop below $1. I'm not very experienced in trading and would appreciate any thoughts on accumulation that occurred.

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (7931)	7/6/1998 1:26:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10903

Is it companies delaying or is there just not as much business. Some are delaying. Many are trying to do it in-house. I think both groups will eventually largely be forced to outsource. I don't mean buying tools; I mean asking someone to do it for them. If I were TPI, I'd be training every available programmer I could afford to hire on how to use Vertex. If everyone is delaying then TPII and many others will fly and fly high. If not, the Y2K sector especially the software solution shops will continue to underperform. Agree? TPI hasn't yet proven it can make money. They also have a severe lack of credibility, IMO. However, a string of Vertex contracts could change that image in a hurry. I say a string because my guess they won't get an initial contracts for more than 500K lines. At .20 a line (I'm using this number because I think they'd have to be price competitive to win a contract with such intense competition out there amoung Y2K vendors), that would be only $100,000. To reach $2.2M they'd need either 22 of these, or to snag an 11M line contract. It's hard to even find a quarter of that much code in one place, let alone win a contract that large. Highly doubtful on both counts. In '96, no one had a clue which of the various Y2K vendors would be the big winner in the Y2K sweepstakes. Thus, stocks traded on pure emotion. Here in '98, even Y2K stocks with decent earnings don't move because a) they haven't met the wild expectations that drove them to crazy highs in '96, and b) so close to 2000, the question everyone is asking is about life after Y2K. As for TPI in particular, let's be realistic: no institution will invest a penny in an OTC BB Y2K stock with a convertible debenture hanging over it. So the only "players" are going to be the Kernaghans of the world and the people that read chat boards like SI. Who do you think is going to win that one? Until the debentures are converted and sold in mid to late August (which, coincidentally is when the road show begins), I see TPI doing a slow bleed. Perhaps some really good news might spur some buying, but, lately, it seems people are using news as an excuse to sell. When companies like COGIF announce a $5M contract, and ALYD announces a contract with AMD, and both stocks do zippo, then it's hard for me to believe TPI will dance to the beat of a different drum. Longer term, when Y2K stuff really starts to hit the fan, I do think we'll see a wave of new buyers. This time around, however, I think these buyers will be more educated-- educated by brokers and analysts who have vested interests in seeing the stocks they've accumulated go up. If TPI is still a penny stock at that time, then they'll obviously miss out on the wave... unless, of course, it's more of a feeding frenzy and the buying spills over to all Y2K stocks. But, although I actually can see this happening, I think it would exceedingly risky to base one's investment strategy on that possibility. - Jeff P.S. TPII, the stock, has two big tests upcoming. The first is tomorrow. Will investors see the drop as a great buying opportunity, or the precursor for a bumpy road ahead? And the second big test will be how TPI resonds to the next press release. If the stock goes up then I'd say it might be a great stock to day trade until August. If it goes down, then I'd be watching from the sidelines.