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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Konehead who wrote (2201)	7/6/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: Eman03	Respond to of 3033

No offense, but I think a disaster has already occurred. If $39 to $15 doesn't qualify, what does?

To: Konehead who wrote (2201)	7/6/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

I don't know what the he## is going on, but here's my assesment. We could still have some form of a pre-release today or tomorrow, before the market opens or after the close, getting later than that, I think it's somewhat possible to draw a conclusion: Since they pre-released things were ok last year when clarify blew up, the lack of a pre-release today probably indicates that they missed the quarter, the lack of a pre-release would also suggest that the quarter is not a complete disaster. The other side possibility is that acquisition discussions are going on, and they have to be completely quiet. Or finally to make room for any possibility, pre-releasing now might be much more complicated since they have to go over each contract with a magnifying glass to make sure there aren't any sop-97-2 compliance issues. They might not have enough information to pre-release. Still, if there's no pre-release today it would suggest a disappointing quarter relative to expectations, but not relative to the stock price. ( a miss of $0.02 to $0.06) However, if it is a disappointment, I'm not sure there's a reason to play sword catching if forward estimates are going to be reduced, especially if we don't know how dramatic the revisions will be. I wish I had a stronger conclusion sice I've invested so much time into the name, but it sure seems like the market knows something I don't. TD