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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stanley G. who wrote (9079)	7/6/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Dale Stempson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

Positive Press on AP "Smaller Cos. Increase Chip Sales" wire.ap.org Regards - Dale

To: Stanley G. who wrote (9079)	7/6/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

I think "Market Makers" have little or no effect in a stock with as much float and institutional participation as IDTI. The reason IDT is down is simply because many investors do not find a compelling reason to own it. The market is down for chip stocks in what is perceived to be a general demand slow-down and over supply situation. IDT in particular is down because they have not carried out their plans very well to expand into new markets aggressively. Market Makers had nothing to do with the fact that IDT has only produced a few hundred thousand WinChip uPs. Going forward, the overall sentiment for the semi stocks will probably stay cool at best for the next quarter. More companies will run into trouble meeting expectations during the summer and "visibility" is likely to remain lousy. The over-riding supply situation is being fueled by the sharp devaluation of foreign currencies which drives down prices for Asian products, the liquidity crisis which forces Asian suppliers to try to export their way to liquidity, the commoditization of microprocessors which is driving down the ASPs and margins in the huge X86 uP market, and the $1 per megabit pricing of commodity DRAMs. In this type of market, IC buyers feel very confident that the "shoe is on their foot" in kicking suppliers of ICs even though many of them, such as IDTI, provide more specialized parts. uP IDT is "sucking hind tit" in the race to become a player in the X86 market and will be for at least several more months. The performance to date in meeting windows of opportunity for the WinChip has been well off the mark. IDT has no excuse such as, "Gee we thought the market was not going to be aggressive and all the over-supply we have been told about would magically disappear once we got our products out the door". IDT should expect prices to be very aggressive and for the company to be walking a thin line between profitable market opportunity and losses. Average wholesale ASPs on WC 2s will be bellow $90 and quite possibly bellow $75 by the time IDT is in anything close to volume production. If the company can't make money at those prices, then now may be the best time to admit it and get out of the race before the WC 2 wagon falls over the cliff. If, on the other hand, the company rises to the challenge and is able to produce viable speed grades of the WC 2, produce them at a clip of 500,000-1.000,000 per quarter with good yields and sell them to one or more major OEMs, then the company will be likely reach new high.

To: Stanley G. who wrote (9079)	7/6/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: 5,17,37,5,101,...	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

Stanley, You usually have some TA to share. What's your reading at this point? If you look at IDT chart you see that stock frequently crashes from $15 or so, then languishes for a month or three before a nice rally. Usually this bottom is accompanied by insider purchases, which have occurred recently: 200,000 shares by Berg at $7 100,00 nonqualified options exercised and held by Perham recounted above just in case you haven't been reading the thread. Long (no pain anymore Sam) to the max, Jackson