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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bolder who wrote (8943)	7/6/1998 2:16:00 AM
From: umbro	Respond to of 164685

Bolder wrote: Why does the consensus seems to be that the possibility of a severe correction in this stock will not take place until after AMZN reports its quarterly results? I submit that the correction in price will begin tomorrow afternoon with AMZN selling between 100-105 at Friday's close. Bolder, I'm not the consensus, and I don't look at a correction to 100 as significant for AMZN. I think AMZN can correct more than that. If AMZN's sales grow by 2x to 600 mil. in 12 months/so (that's a 100% growth rate), _and_ the price-to-sales ratio drops to a (still aggressive) value of 5, ANZN will see a 50% sell-off within the next 12 months (placing the stock price at 60). Since so many short sellers seem to be in consensus, I'd be surprised that we'll see a swift correction unless there is either some stock-specific, or market news that'll be the catalyst for profit-taking. Options on AMZN are trading at sky-high premiums (implied vols. of 100%), and when that happens, likely as not, the stock just trades sideways and frustrates both the longs and the shorts. I'd guess that the next quarterly report will either have the not-so-bad news the bulls are waiting for, or sometthing that'll lead to analyst downgrades. The quarterly report will have to include a statement regarding the 500 mil. junk bond, the additional 5 mil. shares sold, and the "stress" caused by adding new personnel, or additional costs to automate the order-entry and fulfillment processing. That's why I think the earnings announcement will be significant. Which way AMZN goes, who kowss?

To: Bolder who wrote (8943)	7/6/1998 6:10:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164685

>> I submit that the correction in price will begin tomorrow afternoon. If you're right, I'll nominate you for "Guru of the month" ATG