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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (21129)	7/6/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, I agree! If anyone cares <g>..jtechkid should be commended for calling the decline and going short earlier this year. IMHO, he should still be short because all the indicators have now "come clean" and it would be great to see him make more money as the semi equips fall and prove quite a few posters wrong who bashed him months ago! I would hate to see him lose his short profits by going long too early.....I mean seriously, what news out there indicates there is a turnaround coming? It has only gotten worse and does not seem to get better...Remember too, that Morgan himself has stated that Japan is the WILD CARD. The card has been played, IMHO.. MileHigh

To: Big Bucks who wrote (21129)	7/6/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, Jtech, I was not saying that I think we will see 12 on AMAT; I was saying that in the absolute worst-case scenario, we could see 12, that it was possible in a market correction. I was saying that I feel 20 is somewhat likely. As you said, the market will decide and we are just trying to decide what is likely and what is possible. Also, a clarification to my prior post, regarding my comments on the CPU situation. I fully understand that if you change devices, you may not increase the number of chips produced, even if you have upgraded your equipment from .35 to .25. In fact, if the complexity increases a great deal, you will not get a larger number of chips. I said that shrinking created greater efficiencies... I did not say that this in itself added capacity. The basis for saying that Intel has excess capacity was the announced fab shutdowns on Thursday or late Wednesday.