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To: marc chatman who wrote (25170)	7/6/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

SCIENTISTS WHO TRACK the weather are fairly certain the recent El Ni¤o and its effects on the nation's economy are over. But many of them already see signs of another, similar shift, known as La Ni¤a. And while it's not clear just what the impact of this La Ni¤a will be, meteorologists say there's no question - it is time to take notice. "Not only is this El Ni¤o event over," said Jon Davis, a meteorologist who watches the weather at the investment firm Salomon Smith Barney, "but we're rapidly going into a cold episode." While many aspects of the phenomenon are still largely unexplained, scientists say the pattern is well established. The current rapid shift from warmer-than-usual to colder-than-usual Pacific Ocean temperatures has occurred three times in the past 15 years. And for North American businesses, investors, homeowners and farmers, the shift from unusually warm El Ni¤o to unusually cool La Ni¤a ocean waters offers little cause for comfort - La Ni¤a is known to create its own extremes in weather patterns. Areas from the southern United States through the upper Midwest can look for heat waves and an increased possibility of droughts and fires during La Ni¤a. Already, signs are showing up in Florida, where dry conditions have caused raging wildfires. And this La Ni¤a is shaping up as strong one. Some scientists suggest the current drought in Florida may be one result of the shift in weather caused by La Ni¤a. Officials say nearly 1,500 wildfires have seared Florida since June 1, burning up 240,000 acres of parched land. "Temperatures in the Pacific have been above normal over the past 14 months," said Davis. "Over the past month-and-a-half, temperatures have dropped down to normal levels. And now we're even a little bit below normal. So changes over the last five to six weeks have been extremely dramatic" The typical El Ni¤o weather pattern is fueled by unusually warm surface water in the Pacific off the west coast of South America. Normal sea-surface readings range from the 60s to 70s. In an El Ni¤o, they exceed 80 degrees. That concentration of heat interrupts otherwise reliable easterly trade winds and dumps heavy rains on the western part of the United States. By contrast, La Ni¤a reverses the pattern. Stronger-than-usual trade winds pull warm surface water into the atmosphere, which in turn pulls cooler water from depths of a few hundred feet up to the surface. That cooling disrupts the normal flow of air in the jet stream over North America, pulling storms from Canada and Alaska into the United States. GOOD FISHING IN PERU While it can wreak havoc with North American weather patterns, this cooling pattern is good news for Peruvian fisherman - since their catch becomes more plentiful as fish feed on an abundance of nutrients pulled to the surface from the deeper ocean waters. (In fact, those fisherman, who tend to first notice the change around Christmastime, first gave the El Ni¤o pattern its name more than a century ago. The name is Spanish for "little boy," referring to the Baby Jesus. The La Ni¤a phase remained unnamed until the mid-1980s, when it was given the name meaning "little girl.") Since early May, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have logged a sharp drop in water temperatures over a large patch of the Pacific Ocean. The temperatures have fallen at about twice the rate of the last major La Ni¤a in 1988, which was blamed for the severe drought in the Midwest. Companies and investors are also keeping a close eye on this meteorological flip-flop. In the futures markets, prices have risen on commodities from cotton to corn on fear of a drought. Some say this is just the beginning. "Demand for summer apparel tends to increase," said Jim Roomer, a meteorologist based in Raleigh, N.C. NATURAL-GAS DEMAND Natural-gas prices jumped 20 percent in June on the prospect of stronger-than-usual use of air conditioners, which increase the demand for electricity made from gas-fired plants. And that increased demand for natural gas could continue into the winter months as La Ni¤a brings in colder temperatures, forcing homeowners to push up the thermostat. Gas suppliers are bracing themselves. Consolidated Natural Gas company serves nearly 2 million customers in four states. "Gas is already here and in our system," said Rich Zelenko, general manager of Gas Supply for CNG's four natural-gas utilities. "It's just a matter of pulling it out of storage to serve those markets." Others could see La Ni¤a increase demand for their products. Analysts say Fedders - the nation's leading air-conditioner maker - and power companies, such as Unicom, could see a surge in profits if a heat wave kicks in. And if this La Ni¤a packs a punch, there could also be some big losers. Analysts say wineries and restaurants could suffer this summer, as people drink less alcohol in extreme heat and eat out less. HURRICANE WATCH Insurance companies, home builders and home remodelers could also feel the impact of a stormier-than-usual hurricane season. The two most recent La Ni¤a seasons - 1988-'89 and 1995-'96 - spawned more hurricanes than usual, and the current La Ni¤a shift dramatically increases the likelihood of two or more hurricanes hitting the U.S., according to James O'Brien, a meteorologist at Florida State University. While the shift in temperatures is clear-cut, the impact of the El Ni¤a weather pattern is far from clear. Some El Ni¤os come and go without a shift to La Ni¤a. And the connection between cooler ocean water and storms thousands of miles away is only generally understood. (The world's first summit devoted to La Ni¤a will be hosted this month by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.) But the potential severity of the El Ni¤o-La Ni¤a shifts are clear and widespread, especially as continuing development increases population in coastal areas. About 85 percent of the coastal population - some 47 million people - has never been through a major hurricane. And emergency managers believe many coastal dwellers are new residents who may not respond to warnings. Forecasters and emergency directors are most concerned about motorists who could become stranded along evacuation routes. In severe hurricanes, they say, coastal communities in Florida, Texas and the Carolinas could become death traps for stragglers. The Associated Press contributed to this report.