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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fut_trade who wrote (1233)	7/6/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Respond to of 3902

LDP forecast to miss majority in Japan poll-papers By Janet Snyder TOKYO, July 7 (Reuters) - Major Japanese newspapers on Tuesday forecast Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto would not win a majority in next Sunday's Upper House election, a result that could set off serious challenges to his leadership. The Asahi Shimbun, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, and Mainichi Shimbun all forecast the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would not break above the 61 seats they now hold among the seats up for election. Asked about the forecasts, Hashimoto told reporters on Tuesday, ''They are truly tough.'' In Sunday's poll, half of the House of Councillors 252 seats are up for election. The LDP, which is eight seats short of a majority in the chamber, at present has 61 of the seats up for grabs on July 12. The election, although it cannot directly change the government, has become a virtual referendum on Hashimoto's handling of Japan's recession-hit economy. Analysts and party insiders have said if Hashimoto's party clinches 61 seats or less, the prime minister may have to step down. His ouster would throw the country's economic policymaking into disarray at a time when the world is calling for strong Japanese leadership to get its economy moving to head off a new Asian crisis and end worries about a global financial slowdown. The Asahi Shimbun estimated after a nationwide survey taken July 4-5 that the LDP would only take 59 seats. It saw the largest opposition party the Democratic Party of Japan led by charismatic politician Naoto Kan holding the line with 19 seats, while the Communists were seen taking 12, or double their present number of seats. The wild card in the equation is independent candidates, who the Asahi saw winning 17 seats -- a key swing factor if the LDP fails to win a majority. The Nikkei newspaper found in its July 3-5 survey that the LDP is expected to only take 61 seats. Its survey found only 28.5 percent of respondents approved of the LDP, the party's worst showing since Hashimoto took power in January 1996. An overwhelming number of people, 63 percent, wanted to see a coalition government after the elections. Only 13 percent were hoping for an LDP-only administration. The Communist Party, which is calling for a rollback of the unpopular consumption tax to three percent from five percent, looked set to double its number of seats, the Nikkei said. The Nikkei survey found 6.4 percent of respondents supported the Communists, the highest backing for an opposition party aside from the Democratic Party of Japan, which had 11.1 percent. The Buddhist-backed Komei party, which has a loyal following of at least eight million supporters, is also expected to put in a solid showing, the newspaper said. Independent candidates backed by either the LDP or the opposition appeared poised for a good showing with about 10 seats, Nikkei said. But undecided voters took up nearly a third of the Nikkei poll. Thirty-two percent said they were sitting on the fence over which party to vote for. The Mainichi Shimbun agreed with the Nikkei's forecast of only 61 seats for the LDP. It saw 20 seats going to the Democrats, 14 to the Communists and 9 to the Komei. It expected independent candidates to win 14 seats.

To: fut_trade who wrote (1233)	7/7/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Tuesday July 7, 8:24 pm Eastern Time Tokyo stocks jump in early trade on tax cut hopes TOKYO, July 8 (Reuters) - Tokyo stocks jumped in early morning trade on Wednesday, supported by speculation the Japanese government might unveil permanent tax cuts before an Upper House election on Sunday, brokers said. A mild rebound in the yen against the dollar also helped to encourage buying, they said. In the first four minutes of trade, the key Nikkei 225 average climbed 174.23 points, or 1.06 percent, to 16,590.51. September Nikkei futures rose 120 points to 16,600. Market participants are expected to pay close attention to a news conference by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto from 5.30 p.m. to 5.50 p.m. (0830-0850 GMT) in Nagoya. The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said in an unsourced story on Wednesday that Hashimoto could announce permanent tax cuts at the news conference. But brokers said the stock market's upside was likely to be limited, as profit-taking pressure was strong above 16,527 -- the level at which the Nikkei 225 average closed on March 31, the last day of the 1997/98 fiscal year.