To: Tony B who wrote (7834 ) 7/6/1998 9:13:00 PM From: Mike Fredericks Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14162
As the one who made the post on the CPQ board that Tony B referenced, I'm also curious about what you all think. A poster on the CPQ board asked me why I bothered thinking about the spread (long the Jan '99 25 call, short the Jan '99 30 call) since if I'm bullish I should just go long the 25 call, and I noted the following: Using stock price ~$29, 25 call trading at 6 x 6 1/2, 30 call trading at 3 1/2 x 3 7/8: Cost of entering the spread: $300 + 2 commissions Cost of going long the 25 call: $650 + 1 commission Max Downside is also equal to the costs above Breakeven point on the long call: $30.50 (need 8.6% rise in CPQ) Breakeven point on the spread: $28.00 (this is 3.6% below current) Max Profit on the spread: $200, if CPQ is >= $30 (3.4% gain in CPQ) Percentage Profit: 66.7% Price needed to make a 66.7% profit on the long call: $35.80 This would require a 23% jump in CPQ's price. I commented that if CPQ goes up more than 23% in the next 6 months, then I'd still be happy since I'm long the stock. The spread has less risk than just going long the call, and even though I am capping my upside, this is CPQ we're talking, not YHOO, and it's not going to be trading at 200 in Jan '99. Downside is that I can lose it all - I'm writing a cc on another option, rather than on the underlying stock. Compare the spread to writing the 30 calls on the underlying stock I hold (basis at ~$29), I would probably get called out, and lock myself at a 15% gain over the next 6 months. But if CPQ does go down or stay flat, I pocket the $350 and have lowered my basis. If a 30% per year return is what I'm targeting, I can do that. Thoughts on the spread? Don't know if it's really on-topic here, but since someone else posted it here first, I don't feel so bad for bringing it up :-) -Mike