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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (2221)	7/6/1998 3:50:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3033

Amsterdam, I somewhat agree with steve. I doubt that VNTV directly told any shareholders anything one way or another. However, that doesn't mean that very wealthy and large institutions don't have ways of finding things out. one thing is for sure, it's not trading driven by the speculation of SI, this is HUGE volume. However, institutions could be adding several things up: 1) CFO departure mid quarter (I know Kathy's reasons for leaving, but she could have given a few quarters warning) 2) SEBL kicking butt and Tom being very direct to his shareholders about that 3) the departure of eastern region manager/employee number 14 before the end of the quarter 4) comments by a prominent analyst about the deteriorating relationship at lucent and the emergence of quintas and sebl as alternative suppliers with a key strategic partner. (We've run this down as largely untrue, but who would believe trader dave versus a big new york investment bank?) 5) The rotten stock performance as an indicator. These five things combined could give the average institution a reason to sell and have others stay on the sidelines until we find out what's going on. TD

To: seth thomas who wrote (2221)	7/6/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: Amsterdam	Respond to of 3033

Don't get me wrong, I didn't mean to imply that this was purposely a direct conveyance of inside information. But it's now clear that there was a big problem at Vantive and the large institutions heard about it and unloaded their stock. Why else would they sell so aggressively. However benignly they heard, they heard, and since Vantive hadn't made any public comments they had to get it through sources close to the company either indirectly or directly. That's obvious. Nobody sells this big on a mild rumor. There was some concrete information to take this from 25 to $13 in less than a week without any public announcement. It leaked out to the right people and Joe investor is left holding the bag. On the valuation point I do think this is a company with strong products and great customers. I would be buying here if it wasn't for the fact that Vntv management only thinks it can eek out 2% growth. It's looking like a buy-out target.