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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (8983)	7/6/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: robbie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

<<But since it is not looking good for both these products, it quickly is not a critical factor for MSFT.>> On the contrary, short-term thinker, it looks great for both of these products. Anyone who thinks NT5 won't be a huge success is kidding themselves. Robbie

To: ToySoldier who wrote (8983)	7/6/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: ed	Respond to of 74651

What is the big deal if NT5 will be delayed for 6 months ? No similar new products will compete with NT5 on the horizon , then what is the big deal for 6 months of delay ? In the long run, NT5 will be a big success for MSFT, any way !!!! Evnthough NT5 will be delayed for 6 months ( This is still a wild speculation so far), for the 6 month, NT4 will continue to generate good revenues for MSFT, that is what I meant the delay of NT5 for six months is of no big deal considering of MSFT's total revenues. As to win98, all the new PCs sold since 6/26/98 will be installed with win98, so till th release of win2000, we will have two years of total units of pc sold to be installed with win98 , which is around 200000000 units, till win2000 is relased, and 50% will be upgraded to win 2000 of those 200000000 units , and 100% of those who is now using win95 will be upgraded to win2000 at that time, and 50% of win98 users will upgrade to win2002. Looking backward, 100% of those who used win3.1 will upgrade to win98, and 50% of those win95 users will upgrade to win98 in the next two years. Since PC units is growing by more than 10% every year, so Microsoft potential customer base is increased by 10% every year, that is why MSFT's revenue is growing by more than 20% in win product area every year. CE, NT will be additional revenue growing areas in the next 10 years.

To: ToySoldier who wrote (8983)	7/6/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Right. Now the question we must answer is when---when will there be a "bad news event" for Microsoft that will send the shares tumbling? NT5 being delayed and delayed and delayed is not a 'bad news event,' except to the enlightened (that would be you and me, of course). A really big DOJ win might be, but it would have to wait until the appeal. My guess is that Microsoft won't be hurt market-wise until 1999, unless the market crashes as a whole. And even then, Microsoft will temporarily benefit from a "flight to quality." So I'm still neutral on the stock for a while. I think I'll go over to the Yahoo thread and read the posts from all the new millionaires over there. Philosophical question: Who is more overvalued.. Yahoo with a cap of $9 billion or Microsoft with a cap of $250 billion? Yahoo is overvalued by at most $9 billion. If Microsoft is only 10% overvalued then it is overvalued by 25 billion dollars. I think the number is closer to 50%. Oh well. Everyone enjoy your profits. I bought Netscape at 19, 22, 25, and 30, so I'm happy also.