To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (49917 ) 7/6/1998 6:27:00 PM From: jbn3 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
jhg, Welcome to the Dell(head) thread. If our advice, arguments, and dissertations have helped you in any way to make (or save) money, we are pleased. I believe that DELL will go up into earnings in August, due to several factors: 1) DELL consistently beats earnings estimates, sometimes by a lot; 2) Management has been very upbeat this past several weeks, although they had every chance to be noncommittal or even pessimistic; 3) There have been numerous very good press items about DELL, notably from IDC, and NO negative items of which I'm aware; 4) There is the possibility (I believe it to be a probability) of a stock split this year; 5) In recent history (which is NO guarantee for similar future action), DELL's price has had a run-up going into earnings 6) DELL holds its annual shareholders' meeting on 17 July--as with Berkshire-Hathaway, these tend to be positive events. I therefore believe it is likely to repeat its run-up this time. (Accordingly, I bought more calls and sold more puts today.) So I would recommend you ride the stock up until earnings in third week of August. At that point you have two choices... You decide what you think earnings will be, and whether they will beat consensus estimates or not. If yes, you hold on. If not, then DELL will typically drop back a bit post earnings. IMO, one good way to play that is to write deep in the money covered calls. If your analysis is correct and DELLs price drops, you can buy them back a lot cheaper at a later time. This accomplishes three things: 1) It gives you a fairly nice short-term profit 2) It allows you to keep the underlying shares for long-term capital gain. 3) Depending upon your broker, trading options may incur a much smaller brokerage charge than trading the stock. The problem with this is that you may not be correct. DELL may beat estimates and go up and up. Writing the covered calls very strictly limits your participation in any upward movement. DELLish, 3.