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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vieserre who wrote (1364)	7/7/1998 2:02:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 1911

It isn't possible now. It was more so in Livermore's day, but not to the extent that they all thought they could control things. Most operators need to believe they can do something and are not merely at the whim of the random walk. Long years of experience teach otherwise. The markets are too vast now. To succeed you just have to be lucky. In the past tick volume and every trade analysis was fairly effective. Also, big guys knew more than small guys. Ain't true anymore. The scale of money moving in and out even obscure issues is tremendous. This has the effect of washing out all implications of a persistent set of states. What really proved the truth of this was when the specialists walked off the floor of the NYSE on crash day of 1987. They didn't even have faith in the FED's margin support. They were in total fear of the computer programs that mindlessly sold. They were the beneficiaries of the sidecar and all the rest of the degenerate mechanisms, but when push came to shove, they ran from the their Frankenstein's monster. They didn't even want to hear the guarantees of limitless credit from the NY FED. True believers in the system up to the point where their money was at risk. They acted like New Yorkers. That's why you can't trust any of these guys. You can only trust them as long as things are ok. No group of institutions could manipulate anything. It would be out all over hell and gone in 15 minutes. Same with the specialists and MMs. These threads are filled with people making endless claims about how the makers of a market are up to no good. The fact is that if they pursue that behavior as some do, they don't last. If you want to maximize profit, you have to follow exchange rules. You have to sell when the market is thin above to make a continuous market and you have to buy when it is thin below. When you do that, you think, oh no, I'm going to get cleaned. What happens is the market reverses and suddenly you discover you're ahead. Most specialists think they know all about where the stocks in which they make a market are going, but if they don't get on the opposite side of the market from the public even though their great knowledge tells them they shouldn't, they end up losing or at least earning less. This is the same old business you'll hear endlessly from me, pretense to knowledge. If you want to be successful, you have to avoid it. You have to go with the truth. You have to find out what the truth is. Yes, you have to work, and in the MM's case, you have to obey the rules. I still do the every trade analysis through my computers. I guess it tells me something, mostly that researching and finding a good provocative company and then buying and holding it is the way to succeed. I think I'm one of the best traders. That just means I might last longer before achieving gambler's ruin than someone else. Might. The every trade analysis shows completely random action. Since I've been tape reading for almost thirty years I've had a chance to properly assess what information is now in that huge stream. Not much. That also implies there are no manipulations possible.