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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18832)	7/7/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: the options strategist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ what is the symbal for the internet index? Thanks.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18832)	7/8/1998 4:56:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Off topic- Why we go after Kurlack or BCA-- we have greatest respect for them but we would reused to be treated like herd of sheep being led to markets, by questioning their CXW we make our own proprietry strategies. Take these prophets of doom out of contention and you are left with hi- bi thread. It is taking a position right opposite to theirs which has established us a force to be reckon with and without this niche our abilities will dimiinsh if it all boils down to address a console. It is this amongst other a strong elment which has kept me going, otherwise life would become very boring here. I can see with hindsight the benefits of my position vis a vis theirs. This was my response on an earlier BCA chart-- now with NAPM and all this durable data showing a slow down how much off the mark this big guns were and how significant was the read of this thread, it is educational and outstanding data like this which constitutes the backbone of our thread ability to go in tear apart what constitutes as conventional wisdom- The war of words and list of hidden enmies I create in my mind gives me an audience to address, otherwise lookng into my computer console and expect to write every day a commentary on which one and half response woud come is a trribly difficult job. I like to make it clear that these big icons we follow and criticise is only for finding a relationship which they overloook and oportunities they send our way. To tkae best out of you create oppsition even in your mind in this way counter arguments help you to develop more saner and realistic trades. Enjoy this post---- ''The following last week chart from BCA clearly shows that whenever we had CPI inflation 'goods inflation' in mid eighties played an important role- higher CPI was pushed up by 'goods inflation' very much between 86 to 90-once goods inflation headed down we saw CPI heading lower. Now, we have 'goods inflation' heading lower may I ask the BCA guys to explain why a little blip up in service inflation should be a problem?-- We need a little inflation in the system anyway. Lower goods prices can be deflationary if not accompanied by increasing purchase power of public- -service inflation may be just doing that like a invisible hand it is keeping the enough demand not to make this imported price stability 'deflationary'. Even if you look at relative inflation rate in that chart we had convergence in 86 to 90 between goods and services --- as goods headed higher services came lower this 'convergence' was in no way a virtue it stifled demand. We also see a divergence in services and goods, the goods inflation is heading lower and services ticking up but overall impact on CPI is downward. BCA in my opinion way off the mark by suggesting that 'goods lower prices' would have a similar impact on economy like that of mid eighties, they forget that IT and associated globalization has changed the markets structure for ever. MSFT INTC DELL CSCO the leaders in software, CPU's, boxes and networking are not manufacturers in traditional old sense of word they are hiring workers at steep cost but with much higher productivity and very steep value addition. If economist keep worrying about old lathe machine productions techniques and impact of 10$ an hour worker on economy, they would never be able to appreciate that why US markets are here at the first place. In the last few years US is home of very specialized products efficient, highly competitive and very productive like Boeing 777 or Window 95. May be market valuations are showing a deviation from GDP growth but how about an efficient GDP and inefficient GDP. Why should Japanese or European GDP's beset with structural problems of draconian protectionism and tariffs be comparable to US economy. Citicorp makes 4.2% return on assets the best Japanese bank makes -2% return on asset. A US company which ignores shareholders interest is history, Japanese thrive on ignoring shareholders interest and they do it best. Forget about the profit margins for a second, which any way for US corporations is no mean achievement, look at the revenue of these new global corporation-- this is all being sucked up in US, this huge revenue cash flow has translated into affluent living which has led to increased consumer demand. May be for markets and shareholders it is the profit margins, but one cannot overlook the importance of revenues of major corporation in nation's economic strength. It is revenues which are the sources of income for employees( cost comes out of revs also surplus in US is a result of increased contribution of taxes on earnings and capital). New efficient productive rising WAGES are at the heart of prosperity of a nation, a nation with multifaceted expertise does not retire into economic oblivion like Japan post ASEAN crisis. I was surprise to see that US has in last five years seen a massive revenue shift from old traditional manufacturing to new efficient intellectual production like software. What a nice thing to see that a nation concentrating on its comparative advantage is importing goods from all over by being advocate of free trade. It is lack of this ' imports' that besets Japan , by sharing 'proprietary wealth' US is exporting global prosperity. Japanese by prudence have put themselves in mix and need a dose of stimulus every other day in contrast US by concentrating on productivity and share holders value have change the entire corporate landscape. It is ironic to see that BCA unfortunately applies similar set of rules to determine valuations what were being applied when rail road companies ruled the markets or Ford assembly line revolution made the news. In a world of data networking they hinge on to economic principles which are timed out and need major retooling. Boeings Cisco's, MSFT's and Pfizer's of today are at cutting edge of technology, may be it would not be a bad idea to have a new set of definitions. Imagine if US becomes infatuated with this concept of 'surpluses' and 'huge savings' like Japan we would usher into global ice age of deflation. bcapub.com;

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18832)	7/10/1998 4:17:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

World markets in ASEA are down but Russia is up- the reasons being several the size of Tax cuts is being debated and also the yen weakness but I don't see any flight to quality although 16200 on Nikkei and 8400 on HSI has been taken out-- this leads me to heightened my alert-- my stops in JPN must have been executed below 16200, I will like another confirmatory close below 16200 to look at 15800 level as a possibility.Yen weakeness and political uncertainity is also weighing heavily on the stock markets in ASEA. VTSS and Dallas semi conductors has beaten estimates although very slightly, I expect VTSS to hit 40 within couple of months. I would like to rasie my levels here of support at 1921 as a key support a break shall elad us to touch as low as 1892 or the 1885 level-- I will like on break of PSE 348 to intiate a short position on SPX. I will cover at 1921 support which I would expect to hold in case of a strong drift down. I expect Europe to sell although the silver lining is that Russia has been able to close on 10-15 billiob $ loan 40% IMF and other by private banks for its liquidity problems. I think today due to global markets we may see US markets under pressure but PFE VTSS may help specific sectors ABBOT labs report has also been good alonwith GE so I don't see much potential on the downside before INTC MSFT or others big movers establish market direction. Today we may see some test of key supports like 1921--or 1148 on SPX. In case we see that PFE and GE is not able to hold the market my key composite intraday level would be 1932 break I will like to trade that break on the short side.