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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Kline who wrote (4788)	7/7/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Intel Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

I'm not sure I understand you Ron. Charts provide a normally very clear past history, but not a good clue about future stock movements. Other factors must be taken into account. If one were to buy AGPH at 30, 25, 20 or 15, are any of those a good buy at any of those points, and at what point in time, a year ago, today or a week from now? Also, if one held from 55, is that a good strategy? If none of those are good price points, then perhaps, one should never own AGPH. Are you short the stock? In my opinion, a person has to make up their mind about a stock's positioning in a good/excellent company and then vote with their money. thanks in adv, it

To: Ron Kline who wrote (4788)	7/7/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Ron, could you walk through the technical assessment for those of us who don't know much in the way of technical analysis? Thanks. Peter btw, I think technical analysis is a good counterpoint to fundamental analysis ... though I don't understand technical analysis much. And I think it gives good insight into possible buy and sell points. And you're right on fundamental analysis. The problem with fundamental analysis, assuming you've done your homework - requirements for which are prodigious in a biotech stock - is bias, or as you put it, falling in love with a stock. When the story changes, the temptation is to adjust your model of reality to conform to your view of the stock, vs changing your view of the stock. That said, if you can factor out the bias inherent in a long (or a short) position, and feel you've bought a good company at a good price, and if you have staying power and are comfortable with the risks, then I see no problem with holding through a period where the stock declines. Anyway, I don't dispute your analysis. Sounds cogent to me. Peter