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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (21337)	7/8/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Scott, Yes, It's been a great ride so far, but believe me, we haven't seen anything yet. I've refined the read further since the post you referred to, and ironed out a little wrinkle that will provide a more accurate roadmap from here. Primary wave 3 up beginning June 4th is cut in stone. But I have reassigned minor wave 1 up of of this month long intermediate wave 1 up as ending on the high on 6/10. Then, I have minor wave 2 down ending on the lows of June 16th. Since June 16th, I believe we've been in minor wave 3 up of intermediate 1 up of Primary 3 up. This minor wave 3 up was elongated, and I am convinced after today's action that it (minor 3) ended during globex last night when the S&P futures hit 1170.70. Today we saw mild corrective action that completed most of the "A" wave of minor corrective wave 4. We'll see maybe just a little more decline early on tomorrow, then I expect a "B" wave rally back up to and probably eclipsing the highs seen today (low 1170's on the S&P futures). From there, we should see the "C" part of minor corrective wave 4 complete itself. Once the "B" wave ends, which will be between later tomorrow and early Thursday, I intend to be out of all longs and short for a 1 to 2 day period to catch the C wave down. It is impossible to predict exactly how low C will go, so I think I'll just be MILDLY short for a fixed period of time, and try to guage the completion of the 5 wave move down, looking for a wedge ending that would tell me the corrective wave down has completed. What I will say about how far it COULD go is that if it takes out 1160 on the futures, it will be looking to visit 1153, and if it takes out 1153, it will probably see 1135. These corrective moves within surging upmoves are typically very tricky, and you have to aggressively taket profits on the short side when your targets/timeframes have been completed, because harsh turns back up are a given. This correction is not the one you were looking for in your post to me, as the intermediate wave 2 correction will not begin until we've seen the end of this minor wave 4 down, and the completion of minor wave 5 up, which will be the bookend to the June 4th - June 10th rally, a 48 SPX pt. 4.5 trading day move up. So in summary, I'm looking for a little more strength tomorrow afternoon, followed by weakness for the next couple days, taking the SPX cash down to the 1126 to 1152 area. Then, beginning next week, a continuation and grand finale to the rally that began on June 4th, which should take the SPX cash up to the 1170 to 1200 area by Mid July. Then, we see corrective action for the remainder of July that will probably take the SPX cash back down to the 1130 area. That will be the intermediate wave 2 correction you're looking for, which will be followed by intermediate wave 3 of primary 3 rally, an extraordinarily powerful rally that should take the SPX cash up to the 1250 to 1300 area by mid to late August. That's when the REAL fun begins. Regards, David