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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (2265)	7/7/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

There's still plenty of room for another wave of nausea. It often takes a while to see if some of the core holders intend to dump. With this massive of a disappointment, we could easily see another massive round of selling. Institutions are well aware of the "dead cat bounce sentiment" among individual investors and often wait after a disaster like this to begin their selling two or three days later. Security dynamics dropped to "impossibly low" prices of $24 on the day of its blow up and then moved nicely to $28. Several weeks later, the stock has bounced up from $15 1/8 to $18. Steve, be very careful about saying that vantive is "cheap," especially compared to companies that are executing well after having faced problems and corrected them. It's quite possible (in fact likely) that it will take several quarters to redirect and repair the damage. This quarter's fiasco is the result of running too hard to make estimates that were set too high for too long. The only viable near term catalyst is a takeout. Do you think the company would be willing to take $20? Do you think anyone would pay more than that? Now Vantive has to live up to its failure in going after Sebl. Do you think Tom and the gang will capitalize on that mis-step? How could vantive lose a several thousand seat deal at Nextel to Aurum? Esepcially where it was the incumbent on the support side. How about clarify winning several multi-million dollar deals this quarter? clarify's sales force has new leadership and has been working under a new plan for several quarters. You are way too in-love with this company and this stock. I would think it's time to stop rationalizing and start taking a hard look at the realities of this now mediocre company. TD