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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2276)	7/7/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: David R. Doerr	Respond to of 3033

>> I wish I had enough money to do it the other way. I just don't. But even if I did I just wouldn't. Classic.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2276)	7/7/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 3033

<<I don't understand why people don't wait until the stock actually turns around before they jump in>> The problem with waiting until a clear turnaround is that the market moves so fast that you risk losing a good chunk of the turnaround gains. There is alot of risk in trying to project the bottom, and its not something I do as a habit - every situation is different. The reason that I am comfortable with it here is: 1) I have a strong conviction that the value of the company to a full service erp player is greater than the current market cap. 2) Although the news was formally announced only yesterday, it has been long anticipated. Clearly, the decline based on this missed quarter began weeks ago. Anybody that was surprised by yesterdays earnings miss is brain dead (institution or individual). Based on the stock price behaviour, I was expecting a loss. Rick. P.S. In general, though, I agree with your philosophy of biding time when this type of news is announced. It's just my judgement in this case is that the exit doors have been wide open for a couple of weeks so I think (and hope) that this may be a risk worth taking.