MARKET ACTIVITY/TRADING NOTES FOR DAY ENDING TUESDAY JULY 07, 1998 (1)
MARKET OVERVIEW Toronto stocks had posted a modest advance by Tuesday's close, spurred by big gains in the key gold sector, which was boosted by firmer bullion prices. In New York, stocks ended mixed Tuesday while the dollar fell against the yen on speculation Japan could unveil permanent income tax cuts before parliamentary elections Sunday. Oil prices fell, bonds edged lower and gold rose. Asian stock markets closed mixed Tuesday, with share prices rising in Tokyo on hopes that the Japanese government would announce permanent tax cuts after the country's parliamentary elections on Sunday. Shares in Europe scraped marginally higher in light trade Tuesday, but the rally appeared fragile amid continued uncertainty over Japan's efforts to pull itself out of recession. CANADA Gold Stocks Extend Bay Street's Winning Streak ''It was a pretty quiet day in general, but we saw strength in the golds, which propelled the market here,'' said Todd Kapala, investment specialist at Priority Brokerage. ''There's a bounce in the bullion. We seem to have the makings of a summer rally,'' CentrePost Mutual Funds president Rick Hutcheon said. ''The S&P is up in new highs and the Dow is close to the all time high. The TSE has a way to go but we've got the resource sector dragging us back so we'll see.'' ''I think that overall the market seems to be quite content with where it is. We're making slow progress. Is this the summer rally? It may well be,'' said Fred Ketchen, senior vice-president and director of equity trading for ScotiaMcLeod Inc. The Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite index climbed 20.13 points, or 0.3%, to 7454.6 -- its fourth consecutive gain. About 117.6 million shares changed hands on the TSE, a spike of activity after several days of light trading. Trading was up from 64.5 million shares traded on Monday. Trading value was worth $2.3 billion. Advances outnumbered declines 515 to 475 with 320 unchanged. The TSE 35 rose 0.2%, TSE 100 rose 1.0% and the TSE 200 gained 0.5%. "It looks like everyone who wasn't on vacation decided they'd better come to work," said Fred Ketchen, senior vice-president at ScotiaMcLeod in Toronto. "They couldn't go and play golf because it was raining." ''Golds and cables were the hot ones,'' an equities trader said. Of the 14 sub-indexes comprising the TSE 300, 9 sub-indexes advanced with gold and precious minerals index posting the day's strongest performance with a 2.7% gain. The gold sector makes up nearly five percent of the TSE 300 index.Following were real estate, up 0.9%, communications and media stocks, up 0.8%, consumer products, up 0.7%, merchandising, up 0.6% and financial services 0.5% Gold producers rallied as the spot price of the yellow metal gained $1.60 to close at $295.00 US on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX/TSE) climbed 80› to $28.10 and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG/TSE) gained 80› to $17.25. Franco-Nevada Mining (FN/TSE) gained $0.35 to $31.10; Euro-Nevada (EN/TSE) ended at $20.40, up 15 cents. Kinross Gold (K/TSE) rose $0.25 to $4.85; Falconbridge (FL/TSE) fell $0.30 to $16.50. Shaw Communications Inc. class B shares (SCLB/TSE) jumped 40› to $33.15, after earlier hitting a record intraday high of $36, and Rogers Communications Inc. class B shares (RCIB/TSE) rose 15› to $13.40. There has been persistent speculation that cable companies may be poised for a series of takeovers and mergers. "People believe that companies like Shaw and Rogers are potential takeover targets after the AT&T Corp. acquisition of Tele-Communications Inc. last month," said Norman Duncan of C.M. Oliver & Co. Shaw also benefitted from being listed on the New York Stock Exchange last week, according to Bob Bek, an analyst at CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc. Other cable-related companies that advanced included Rogers Communications Inc. class A shares (RCIA/TSE), up 80› to $14, Cogeco Inc. (CGO/TSE), up 85› to $18.10, and Cogeco Cable Inc. (CCA/TSE), up 40› to $17.40. Le Groupe Vid‚otron Lt‚e. (VDO/TSE) also rose 55› to $22.30. ''Anything to do with media and communications seems to be striking a love note with a lot of investors these days in this country. And I think based on the comparative valuations of Canadian companies with the U.S., ours are much much cheaper,'' ScotiaMcLeod Inc. Senior Vice-President Fred Ketchen said. "There is a little bit of speculative appeal to them." Torstar (TS.B/TSE) led media stocks higher with a gain of $1.35 to $24.75, while Thomson Corp. (TOC/TSE) slipped $0.15 to $45.00. Cinar Films B (CIF.B/TSE) climbed $1.25 to $33.50. Bank of Montreal (BMO/TSE) rose 50› to $82.75, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM/TSE) gained 50› to $49.35 and Royal Bank of Canada (RY/TSE) climbed 25› to $90.60. Among active issues, Hyal Pharmaceutical Corp. (HPC/TSE) was the second-most active (following TCPL) in Toronto, rising 65› to $2.73 on volume of 4.9 million shares, on speculation the company is about to announce a major marketing deal. The company again denied that a merger deal or licensing agreement was close at hand. Call-Net Enterprises (CN.B/TSE) shares rose C$0.85 to C$26.25 in heavy trading after the company's Sprint Canada subsidiary launched a flat-rate long-distance pricing program for evenings and weekends. Traders saw the move as a strategy to wrest market share from competitors. Alcan Aluminium Ltd. (AL/TSE) rose 50› to $40.70 after the world's largest aluminum producer, U.S. based Aluminum Co. of America, reported better than expected results, raising similar hopes for Alcan. Alcoa shares (AA/NYSE) rose 5/8 to US$65 5/8 after the firm reported quarterly earnings of US$1.24 a share, US10› better than estimates. Five index groups were lower. The pipelines sector posted the biggest loss - 1.54 per cent - owing in large measure to TransCanada PipeLines, which fell $0.75 to $25.95. Investors in TransCanada, which is merging with the gas transmission division of Nova Corp., are reacting to short-term growing pains as the two companies consummate the deal, Ketchen said. Abitibi fell 65 cents Tuesday to $19.40 and helped push the paper and forest products group 0.8% lower. Investors reacted negatively to news that a $1.5-billion US joint venture deal between Abitibi-Consolidated and two of its international counterparts had prompted bond raters Standard and Poor's to revise their outlook on Abitibi to stable from positive. Industrial products lost 0.4%. Troubled high-tech giant Newbridge Networks plunged $1.25 to $37.00 after three board members resigned in the wake of a dismal fiscal year. The Oil & Gas Composite Index lost 0.3% or 19.73 to 6134.74. Among the sub-components, the integrated oil's fell 0.3% or 23.50 to 8534.33. The oil & gas producers lost 0.3% or 14.34 to 5453.09 and the oil & gas services fell 1.0% or 23.46 to 2356.96. Northstar Energy, Crestar Energy, renaissance Energy, Petro-Canada, Probe Exploration, Abacan Resources and TriGas Exploration were among the top 50 most active issues on the TSE. Also listed were service related issues Canadian Fracmaster and Prudential Steel. Canadian Natural Resources gained $0.80 to $25.85, Pacalta Resources $0.65 to $9.60 and Suncor Energy $0.65 to $51.25. Service issues were not represented among the top 50 net gainers on the TSE. On the downside, Seven Seas Petroleum (u) fell $1.40 to $18.60, Paramount Resources $0.75 to $13.00, Crestar Energy $0.55 to $16.65 and Petro-Canada $0.55 to $23.65. Among service related issues, Dreco Energy Services fell $4.00 to $39.00 American ECO $2.25 to $5.40, CE Franklin $0.55 to $6.25, Akita Drilling $0.50 to $10.25, Enertec Resource Services $0.0.50 to $8.50 and IPSCO $0.50 to $39.00. Although the transportation group closed slightly to the downside, it was helped by Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR/TSE) shares, which climbed C$0.80 to C$78.80 on bargain-hunting. ''The stock had been under a lot of pressure recently partly because of profit-taking and you can look for a cutback in their freight deliveries because of the General Motors strike. The longer that goes on, the more difficult it's going to be for them,'' ScotiaMcLeod Inc. Senior Vice-President Fred Ketchen said. ''I think CNR is really a screaming buy in around this range.'' Among other issues, Devtek Corp. (DEK.A/TSE) class A shares lost 0.45 to hit 4.50 after the company's earnings outlook for 1998 and 1999 was downgraded by Nesbitt Burns analyst Peter Sklar. Other Canadian exchanges were mixed. The Montreal Exchange portfolio rose 13.72 points, or 0.4%, to 3784.92. The Vancouver Stock Exchange lost 5.51 points, or 1%, to 527.99. The Alberta Stock Exchange's combined value index fell 1.37 to 2109.06. Declining issues edged advancing issues 133 to 129, with another 88 issues unchanged. Among oil and gas related issues, Alta Pacific Capital, Total Energy Services, Anvil Resources, Granger Energy B, Veteran Resources, Green River Petroleum, ICE Drilling, Wenzel Downhole, Stellarton Energy, First Star Energy and Raptor Capital were among the top 25 most active traded issues on the ASE. Granger Energy C gained $1.49 to $4.00, Granger Energy B $0.18 to $0.55, Brigadier Energy $0.15 to $0.60, Derrick Energy $0.15 to $2.25 and Wenzel Downhole $0.13 to $1.58. Underbalanced Drilling fell $0.50 to $1.50, Total Energy Services $0.34 to $1.76, Solid Resources $0.30 to $6.90, Edge Energy $0.20 to $3.80, Red Sea Oil $0.20 to $1.60, AltaQuest Energy $0.15 to $2.50, Corlac Oilfield $0.15 to $0.75, Alma Oil & Gas A $0.10 to $0.40, Golden Trend Petroleum $0.10 to $0.50 and Mera Petroleum $0.10 to $0.60. The Canadian dollar ended North American trade little changed at C$1.4721 (US$0.6793) on Tuesday, failing to take advantage of the U.S. unit's weakness against the yen. Canada gave up some earlier gains spurred by the U.S. dollar's fall versus the yen after Japanese ruling party politicians in election campaign statements suggested that voters could expect a structural, not stop-gap, income tax cut after the July 12 Upper House elections. U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin urged Tokyo to implement a strong fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. In early morning trade, option-related buying took the U.S. dollar up to C$1.4739 (US$0.6785), but this was followed by quick profit-taking in the wake of the Japanese tax statements. Buying of Canada was limited to C$1.4692 (US$0.6806). Japan's academics and policymakers have been debating a broader-based approach to taxation, aimed at encouraging middle- and high-income earners to boost spending by lowering the top income tax brackets. But this must be matched by higher indirect taxation in the form of an increased rate for the consumption tax, a move that is politically risky for any ruling party. Japanese newspapers forecast that Prime Minister Hashimoto is unlikely to maintain a majority in the Upper House after Sunday's election as the public grows skeptical about his handling of the nation's financial problems. Although the Lower House has the final say on key decisions, critics speculate that a defeat in the poll could lead to Hashimoto's resignation. On the domestic front, Canada will release its June jobs data on Friday, but impact on the market is seen as being limited. Economists on average forecast the jobless rate at 8.4 percent, unchanged from May. Employment is expected to increase by 26,000 after falling by 7,300 in May, which came in contrast to a sharp gain in April. In cross trading, the Canadian unit edged up to 1.2318 marks from 1.2290 marks at the previous close here, but slipped to 94.16 yen from 95.08 yen. Canadian bonds ended flat to firmer on Tuesday as speculative buying sent the yield on the long bond to a record low. Defying a drop in prices for most U.S. treasuries, market participants bought Canada's 30-year bond, pushing up the price to C$137.43, up C$0.58 from Monday's close here. As bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, this pushed the yield down to 5.421 percent. Canada outperformed the U.S. 30-year bond, which fell 11/32 to yield 5.60 percent. The spread between the two widened to 18 basis points from 12 points at the previous close here. The short end of the Canadian yield curve ended flat as the Canadian dollar was trading in a stable fashion. No economic indicator or news emerged as a trigger for sustained buying of Canadian bonds on Tuesday afternoon. Instead, there was speculation that the buying was related to the new Millennium Fund set up in the 1998 budget by the government of Canada, said Jeoff Hall, managing Canadian market analyst at Technical Data in Boston. "The most of the buying today has come in the 10-year area, but that strength has spilled into longs," he said. Speculation has it that Ottawa's plans for the Millennium scholarship fund for higher education are leading to it setting up a large bond portfolio for the fund. "I would say 10's (10-year bonds) are the preferred instrument right now because people are moving away from long bonds at the moment," Hall said. "Even though they're well bid today, it doesn't look like it's going to last." Jeffrey Cheah, financial market analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS, said he expected Canada's benchmark 30-year bond to make a correction to around C$136.60 as players take profits for the next few days after today's rally. North American bonds have been see-sawing on news from Japan for the last few days as hopes for structural tax cuts, not one-off tax breaks, emerged on Friday, then subsided by Monday, and re-emerged overnight. Election campaign remarks by Japan's ruling party politicians suggesting that the current government would institute permanent tax cuts pushed up the yen against the U.S. dollar overnight, which in turn exerted slight selling pressure on U.S. treasuries. A temporary loss of support from safe-haven buying of U.S.-dollar assets prompted trimming some of Monday's gains in Canadian long bonds in morning trade. "The Canadian market appears to be outperforming just slightly. I don't think there's any undamental reason for that," said Arve Bendiksrud, vice president of fixed-income research at TD Securities Inc. "This morning the turnaround in sentiment mildly hit the U.S. market, and the hit is more pronounced in the U.S. than in Canada." Japan's academics and policymakers have been debating a broader-based approach to taxation, aimed at encouraging middle- and high-income earners to boost spending by lowering the top income tax brackets. But this must be matched by higher indirect taxation in the form of a higher rate for the consumption tax, which is bad news for low-income earners and politically risky for any ruling party. Japanese newspapers forecast that Prime Minister Hashimoto may not maintain a majority in the Upper House after Sunday's election as the public grows skeptical about his handling of the nation's financial problems. Although the Lower House has the final say in key decision-making, critics speculate that a defeat in the poll could lead to Hashimoto's resignation. Money market trading was little changed in slow trading. "There's some perception that the Asian thing is not so bad, but that comes and goes," said one trader. "People are still spending money into the short-term area." "The central bank's policy hasn't changed particularly," he said. "Activity is minimal, relatively speaking." The Bank of Canada's treasury bill auction on Tuesday produced yields lower than in the previous auction two weeks ago. The average yield for three-month bills (C$3.3 billion) was 4.800 percent, down from 4.882 percent at the last auction. The average for the six month (C$1.5 billion) was 4.934 percent, down from 5.069 percent, and the one-year (C$1.4 billion) got 5.161 percent, down from 5.243 percent. Canada's three-month when issued T-bill traded with a yield of 4.82 percent, compared with 4.81 percent at the previous close here. |