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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john dodson who wrote (18754)	7/7/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: William Wang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Who is selling: 1. Short seller 2. Weak hands (I don't think so, they already bail out) Who is buying: 1. COMS (company stock buy back) 2. Amateur investors Who is watching: 1. Institutional investors

To: john dodson who wrote (18754)	7/7/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Some stiff on CNBC now was asked about 3COM, he said it's "like having a tiger by the tail. A very tough way to make $. I would not be in it." On the other hand, he does like AMD. =-o -Ouch, John Dodson

To: john dodson who wrote (18754)	7/7/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

John: Anything is possible. All you and I can do is act on the basis of reasonable probabilities. I see those probabilities as indicating ceteris parabis/ other things remaining the same that COMS will not break below 28 1/2. This is why: 1. COMS has put in a major double bottom. This has a significance in and of itself. Stocks which put in such bottoms do not trade below in the absence of new fundamental developments. 2. Along with a bottom, COMS short term moving average is up, its in an upward channel. This combination also has significance. COMS is a very visible stock, proof being the activity on this and other threads and its average daily trading volume. Investors, fund managers etc have seen the bottom and the rising price and - people being what they are- expect it to continue. Can't most TA be summed up in one word: Momentum? 3. On June 24-25 COMS broke through major resistance in a 20% upward move on huge volume(about 3l million as I recall), five times the average daily volume. Look at the tape for 6/25 and you'll see that nearly all that huge volume was at prices above 28 1/2, some small portion of it being as high as 32 13/16. Given #1 and #2, what fool is going to sell shares bought on June 25 for less than 28 1/2? In the absence of something new and fundamental? 4. I mentioned the Fibonacci Retracement theory: after a stock breaks through resistance in a major move, but fails to break through upper levels of resistance, it finds support at the 38% and 62% levels respectively. I calculated those levels at 29 5/8 and 28 1/2 and although you can reasonably quibble with my calculations I believe that for most of two days most trading took place within 1/8th of a point of 29 5/8 and once that level was violated support at 28 1/2 has been unflinching. To me this has not been surprizing in that most MMs and fund managers are familiar with TA and Fibonacci. If they believe the stock will not trade lower than 28 1/2, the theory becomes self-fulfilling even if you and I don't understand it. Only time will tell, but this is the way I am placing my bet.