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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ricky who wrote (1864)	7/7/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3818

a copy of my yahoo post.... Montgomery was out with a slightly negative call earlier this week. Combined with the weak semis, that makes for a tough stock. Montgomery was noting that PMCS has historically light bookings in the summer months and combined with declines in the legacy business going forward, that could create some buying opportunities because short term outlook will only be lukewarm. IMO, that assessment is quite positive, because it's setting expectations for modest results in the quarter. First, Montgomery is incorrect in predicting a 25% sequential design in legacy business in September. Much of PMCS' legacy business includes chipsets DESIGNED into German medical devices where the DESIGN WIN will last well into 1999. The company won't rebid and we can count on some declines in 1999...by then it won't matter. More importantly, Montgomery misses a key development at PMCS, bookings are related to prior DESIGN WINS. PMCS is coming off of a record several quarters of huge increases in the rate of DESIGN WINS. In fact the DESIGN WIN counts in q4 and q1 are as large as the entire YEAR in 1996. 1996 DESIGN WINS are what's driving business today. I wonder how the stock would react if instead of a penny upside, there's another nickel of upside and fy 1999 estimates increase from $1.40 to $1.55? TD