To: Lawrence Burg who wrote (4418 ) 7/8/1998 1:35:00 AM From: DDS-OMS Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6467
Larry, Just got back last night from a few weeks in Maine. Took a laptop and never opened it--read no newspapers, but did glance at CNBC after the close a few times. Just burned out, I guess. Now have a lot of catching up to do. It's a given that the steady price erosion is Reg D selling--but someone is buying those millions of shares in spite of ever declining prices. Smart money accumulating a large position, or just a lot of small bottom fishers?? Does that interesting anomaly in the 8 day ADX/ADXR indicate just enough buying pressure not to alter the gradual price drop? Regardless of ANY TA, the trend is still clearly down--but it will bottom somewhere before it reaches zero.<g> I'm using 10, 21, 34, and 55 day Stochastic of RSI now, and I've never seen numbers as low as TTRIF was on 6/26--- 0, 0, 0, 2.3 Even when TTRIF dropped to <25 cents in the '96 Reg S the numbers never got this low. A miniscule pop brought the 10 day up to 81 on 7/2 before it dropped again. From zero, these oscillators obviously have no where to go but up, but when the 10 day bottoms in the next few days, this would normally signal a buy point for me--in the absence of that Reg D. Waiting for this downtrend to be broken on the upside is the prudent course to take. The 13 day CCI on 6/30 got above zero for the first time since 4/27, and that reversal lasted one day. It's already oversold again at -121. Everything points to very heavy selling pressure this past week--maybe heavier than usual Reg D selling since it's over for them? If so, expect sudden sharp reversal when they're through dumping. By then it might be too late to get in--I plan to start nibbling in 2-3 days when the 10 day StochRSI gets down to >20--but will sell into any rally. FWIW, Gann support is at 75 cents. If it can't hold here, next support is at 5/8. Resistance is at 1 3/8. All this is purely technical--and TA on penny stocks is not reliable enough. Don't know much about fundamentals over the past month--hell, don't even know the latest on the Trooper suit. Any newbie that doesn't know me--I still hold 480K shares, so am obviously prone to be biased. The 18 month US cap.gain holding period ended for me on 6/23, so w/b selling heavily into the post-Reg D rally--assuming it occurs. Regards, Gary