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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (474)	7/8/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Axel Gunderson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

How accurate are analysts projection? The following is a comparison of projections made by Value Line and actual results as recorded by Value Line. Accounting interpretation should be fairly consistent, Value Line is viewed as an objective, largely disinterested party, and the 49 companies are all large, prominent, well-known companies. All figures have been adjusted for stock splits. Like Berney, I have to enter all this data myself, but as I am an expert in the art of transposition errors, don't take individual data points to heart! In the aggregate, Value Line did a good job, but on an individual company basis, the variation is more noticeable. This reinforces the need to insist on a margin of safety, if for no other reason than to account for errors in estimations and calculations. Symbol Projected Cash Flow 97 Actual Cash Flow 97 Projected Capital Expenditures 97 Actual Capital Expenditures 97 Projected Cash Earnings Actual Cash Earnings Cash Flow error (%) Cap. Exp.error (%) Cash Earnings Error (%) GM 18.75 32.32 10.60 14.88 8.15 17.44 72.4 40.4 114.0 GT 7.90 7.69 4.20 4.47 3.70 3.22 -2.7 6.4 -13.0 CAT 11.05 13.06 5.00 6.02 6.05 7.04 18.2 20.4 16.4 DE 4.50 4.92 0.95 1.89 3.55 3.03 9.3 98.9 -14.6 BA 8.14 4.18 1.59 2.78 6.55 1.40 -48.6 74.8 -78.6 ITW 5.85 6.18 1.05 1.44 4.80 4.74 5.6 37.1 -1.2 ALD 6.50 6.38 2.50 2.56 4.00 3.82 -1.8 2.4 -4.5 EMR 7.30 7.42 2.45 2.62 4.85 4.80 1.6 6.9 -1.0 GE 6.20 6.02 1.00 1.34 5.20 4.68 -2.9 34.0 -10.0 MMM 6.50 6.17 3.05 3.47 3.45 2.70 -5.1 13.8 -21.7 UTX 7.85 8.24 3.35 3.68 4.50 4.56 5.0 9.9 1.3 CHV 7.90 8.35 5.95 5.94 1.95 2.41 5.7 -0.2 23.6 XON 9.94 11.08 5.90 6.02 4.04 5.06 11.5 2.0 25.2 TX 12.70 12.80 11.50 13.38 1.20 -0.58 0.8 16.3 -148.3 ENE 4.70 3.75 3.60 4.54 1.10 -0.79 -20.2 26.1 -171.8 AA 10.19 8.99 5.30 5.42 4.89 3.57 -11.8 2.3 -27.0 BS 3.10 3.17 2.70 2.02 0.40 1.15 2.3 -25.2 187.5 NUE 5.55 5.83 2.50 3.49 3.05 2.34 5.0 39.6 -23.3 IP 6.75 5.19 5.55 3.68 1.20 1.51 -23.1 -33.7 25.8 APD 8.00 8.08 7.20 7.92 0.80 0.16 1.0 10.0 -80.0 DD 12.00 11.44 7.15 8.44 4.85 3.00 -4.7 18.0 -38.1 UK 8.25 7.37 5.90 5.51 2.35 1.86 -10.7 -6.6 -20.9 T * 5.60 5.11 2.75 4.30 2.85 0.81 -8.7 56.4 -71.6 ATI 1.50 1.87 1.40 1.35 0.10 0.52 24.7 -3.6 420.0 SBC 7.85 8.36 4.90 6.28 2.95 2.08 6.5 28.2 -29.5 EK 8.05 6.18 3.55 4.60 4.50 1.58 -23.2 29.6 -64.9 LU 4.20 4.60 1.55 2.54 2.65 2.06 9.5 63.9 -22.3 AMP 4.25 4.12 2.75 2.19 1.50 1.93 -3.1 -20.4 28.7 INTC 9.25 11.22 4.95 5.52 4.30 5.70 21.3 11.5 32.6 CSCO 2.30 2.43 0.55 0.50 1.75 1.93 5.7 -9.1 10.3 CPQ 6.40 8.75 0.60 2.40 5.80 6.35 36.7 300.0 9.5 HWP 4.25 4.49 2.15 2.25 2.10 2.24 5.6 4.7 6.7 IBM 25.40 22.88 8.10 14.04 17.30 8.84 -9.9 73.3 -48.9 SUNW 2.55 2.91 0.85 1.50 1.70 1.41 14.1 76.5 -17.1 XRX 6.35 6.54 1.75 1.59 4.60 4.95 3.0 -9.1 7.6 JNJ 3.30 3.25 1.55 1.03 1.75 2.22 -1.5 -33.5 26.9 MDT * 3.25 3.10 0.75 0.50 2.50 2.60 -4.6 -33.3 4.0 MRK 4.25 4.57 0.75 1.21 3.50 3.36 7.5 61.3 -4.0 SGP 4.25 4.48 0.85 1.10 3.40 3.38 5.4 29.4 -0.6 CPB 5.15 5.24 1.85 1.44 3.30 3.80 1.7 -22.2 15.2 HNZ * 2.15 3.15 0.75 1.10 1.40 2.05 46.5 46.7 46.4 K 4.75 4.78 1.70 1.50 3.05 3.28 0.6 -11.8 7.5 KO 1.80 1.92 0.45 0.44 1.35 1.48 6.7 -2.2 9.6 MCD 3.75 3.51 2.20 3.08 1.55 0.43 -6.4 40.0 -72.3 MO 11.35 9.90 1.90 2.31 9.45 7.59 -12.8 21.6 -19.7 PG 7.10 7.10 3.70 3.16 3.40 3.94 0.0 -14.6 15.9 AUD 2.60 2.59 0.65 0.60 1.95 1.99 -0.4 -7.7 2.1 CA * 4.55 4.20 0.10 0.08 4.45 4.13 -7.7 -25.0 -7.3 DIS 4.15 4.53 2.10 2.85 2.05 1.68 9.2 35.7 -18.0 Totals 329.97 340.41 154.14 180.97 175.83 159.45 133.3 1080.0 6.4 Averages 2.7 22.0 0.1 * T, MDT, HNZ, and CA not fully updated in VL for 97. PS. Sorry if the table doesn't turn out, I'm a beginner at this.