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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg R who wrote (3431)	7/8/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: Warren Gates	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

My first post here. Buying shares in IBM for me is a no brainer. I just treat IBM as a software/services/solutions company with an annual revenue of 45B, growing at 15- 20% annually, with about 12% profit margin. 3X sales should be quite reasonable giving it a market cap of 135 Billion. So at 973M shares, stock should be around $138. Oh, the hardware part of the business is extra. Sure revenue here has been flat but that doesn't mean they're not making money out of it. I'm so surprised analysts are still bothered by the decline in mainframe revenue. This is deliberate on IBM's part. This is nothing different than Intel cutting prices on its chips. IBM used to offer software and services to sell mainframes. Now, IBM has transformed itself to a systems integrator, and in case the customers want some hardware, they've got some, too. To all IBM bears, check out IBM's new DB2 Universal Server. Just the fact that it has regained the technological #1 position against Oracle has made me sell all my Oracle shares. This alone is good proof that IBM is ready to lead again and all those billions poured into R&D has finally began to bear fruit.

To: Greg R who wrote (3431)	7/8/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Jim Koch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8218

How good is the INPATHIQUE system? Greg, since I am always looking for better tools, I have been following the INPATHIQUE examples for IBM with some interest since you first referenced it on this thread. At first glance, it looks pretty impressive. However, I have noticed several "corrections" to make the charts reflect the actual path of IBM's stock price. Having a background in Statistics, I know how easy it is to build a system to "predict" the past. How successful have you been using this system? Anybody else care to comment? Also, how can the system account for the 2nd Q earnings report? I expect the "whisper" numbers to start influencing the stock price very soon. The word from the "trenches" is that IBM North America is exceeding plan and looking very strong. This is in spite of a very poor 2nd Qtr outlook at the beginning of the year. Will this be enough to overcome the SEA problem, poor performance in the PC market, and exchange rates? Don't know. My bet is that it will, I am buying back my August 115's (at a loss) and going long. IBM's 3rd & 4th Qtr outlook looks good, the fundamentals are there. Me thinks Lou is on to something here! Bear or Bull, somebody is going to make some money. I hope its me! Good luck.