Frank:
Perhaps more appropriate for the Last Mile thread but we talking convergence here, aren't we?
One of my first takes on the ION announcement was to suggest that Teligent (AGRPA), WCII and ARTT were going to be in good positioning, but nothing I said turned any heads in those threads, and nothing that FON stated subsequently reinforced the idea that they might be receptive to wireless on a large scale, that I am aware of. Everything seems to be pointing to ATM over DSL and perhaps cable modem.
I can say with some confidence that T and MCI/WCOM have done their "due diligence" on broadband wireless. Sprint is more of an unknown. To my knowledge, none are "down" on the technology. Up to now, the reasons hypothesized for not stepping up to the plate are: T needs/wants a national solution due to their top-heavy residential customer base; MCI/WorldCom, for MCI, side-show to 2 years of merger disruption and more importantly, contrary to public policy of "reselling" wireless service; WCOM; predominately fiber-culture; very low on radar screens until recently; Sprint; laboring under a multi-billion price tag for spectrum and nationwide CDMA buildout. (In fact, I believe all are waiting for the "over the air ATM" interfaces, as well as the back office systems to support that interface to be proven out.)
IMO, the IXCs have all been looking for the magic bullet for last mile access and within the past year have realized that there is none. I believe the general view is that last mile access will be a mosaic of technologies, deployed where appropriate. The economics of broadband show clear breakpoints -- by residential and commercial access line density -- between fiber, wireless, copper, and (seriously) LEOs. (Coax is a wildcard because it is primarily a means to deliver broadcast video, a bandwidth hog even with MPEG-2, not to mention the fact that bandwidth savings from digitization and compression will probably all be used by HDTV and more programming diversity. This is another little fly in the ointment regarding the T/TCI deal, but if coax is used as a res platform and fiber/BBW a biz platform, it probably works.)
We may see some real ironies emerge out of these deals. If T takes TCOMA facilities and successfully turns them into local exchange pipes, what's to stop FON from reselling those access pipes for ION purposes if the players by that time are truly opening up their stores for interconnection? I don't think that a local access carrier, switched or otherwise, can refuse common carriage to any long distance carrier on the basis of competitive reasons....
I agree, and I think that it has tremendously complicated the strategic planning of the IXCs. There are no "good choices" for anybody.
We're seeing some interesting conflict emerge on this topic with T's acquisition of TCG, in fact, and things are getting really uncomfortable in some corners. Take for example, where TCG sold very large amounts of bandwidth to MCIC and FON for their own access purposes to large enterprise subscribers, and now find themselves being owned by the competing T. Some of these bandwidth contracts have four or five years of life left in them, and the customers chose TCG on the merits of attributes other than pricing, such as redundancy and diversity.
How about some more (some already mentioned on the thread).
T's acquisition of TCI makes, T significant owner of Sprint Spectrum. (Sprint and its cable partners have been debating for a year about the structure of the JV. This deal complicates this negotiation since lack of resolution brings the FCC, spectrum caps, and ATT Wireless into the mix.) Associated, major shareholder off Teligent, was (still is?) the largest single owner of TCI. NTT, 10% owner of Teligent. EVERYBODY wants to JV with NTT.
I think that you've very nicely pointed to the next round of
Mondo-Class acquisitions, although I'm getting flack here when I
mention those myself.
Doe anyone not believe that there will be 2-3 RBOCs left standing, and 3 major IXCs? The new fiber barons are building for buyout, clear as day. Same thing with broadband wireless.
If I had to make a bet today, Teligent would flip to T, (because of the TCI connection / not Mandl) even though this would present a synergistic problem with the Biztel licenses. Winstar is laden with ex-MCIers, and considering Bill Rouhana's rumored asking price, the only telecom exec who would feel no fear paying the premium is Bernie Ebbers. Where does that leave Sprint? Either they cut a deal with the LMDS winners -- Sprint could pay a hefty premium and still get 30x the amount of spectrum for what they paid for PCS, or they wait for the 39 Ghz auction where another 1.5 ghz will be sold, probably at even lower prices. Sprint knows many of the LMDS winners (or at least the behind the scenes players) through their JV's in PCS.
Now add NTT, BT, France and Deutche Telcom, and BCE to the mix (any one of which may jump in and start buying) and one understands the old curse, "may you live in interesting times."
ww
In from the wilderness and reading tea leaves. |
