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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (120)	7/7/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: R Stevens	Respond to of 271

Michael, This was reposted on "The Stock Market Bubble" thread: Message 4990340 Thought you might enjoy it.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (120)	7/8/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 271

Mike, Mike, Mike. Get with the spirit. Why throw cold water on everybody's fun. Your scenario has no chance of happening - that would kill the stock market, so it can't happen. Besides, Wall Street predicts 10% earnings growth. Maybe because that's what's necessary to support a 26 P/E multiple with no dividend yield. I feel like a eunuch in a whorehouse invested in a bunch of low-P/B or low P/E stocks with no downside (except that I am beating the market by a good margin even in my small cap value stocks, which are supposed to be underperforming badly). Is now the time to buy Amazon? Its 25% off its high (of two days ago). Can't go much lower...buy the dips, that always works. I think I'll wait for about 60 points lower. I'm a customer of Amazon, and I love the business. I also understand the business. So I think I'll wait for about 60 points lower (and almost definitely still pass). Anybody want to take a bet we'll see 60 points lower? Give me 2:1 odds, and I'll take a six month limit. Jim

To: Michael Burry who wrote (120)	7/9/1998 12:15:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 271

Mike, I'm actually looking for the opposite. Japan stabilizes, capital flees the US "safehaven", tanking the dollar and bonds and crashing the stock mkt. We're left w/ a deep recession and inflation. I don't see any way to avoid it. 28 billion came into equities so far from foreigners in '98 compared w/ 8 billion last yr and 6 billion the yr before. When that money leaves, we'll hear a giant sucking sound. It is either that or China devalues. Either way, we've had it. Clark: AMZN needs to be about 150 lower for me to even look at it (ggg) Profits would also be nice, but I'll forget about the lack of barriers to entry just cause I'm in a drunken mood and feeling generous. So, 150 lower and a little profit and I'm there (yes I know the stock would be negative at that point:) -Lucretius